Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in no rush to blame Iran for a rocket attack on a military base in northern Iraq that left one civilian contractor dead and several others injured, including a U.S. service member.
After years of former President Donald Trump threatening Tehran with U.S. military force after its attacks in Iraq and other aggressive actions in the region, the Biden administration is vowing to try diplomacy first. But it also has yet to remove a single Trump-era sanction on Iran as it searches for a way to alter the Islamic republic’s behavior.
“We are working in close partnership with Kurdish and Iraqi authorities,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said, noting that the United States has “intelligence holdings” independent of any other entity’s investigation. “We will marry that with information that we develop in tandem with our partners. But again, we are in the early stages of this, and I wouldn’t want to get ahead or prejudge where that investigation may lead.”
The attack in Erbil on Monday reportedly injured five Americans, but the one civilian contractor killed in the assault was not a U.S. citizen. The assault immediately stoked speculation about how President Biden would respond, given that Trump’s administration carried out an airstrike killing Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani last year after a rocket attack from an Iraqi militia tied to Tehran left another U.S. contractor dead.
“We are not going to get ahead of the investigation that is very much underway,” Price said. “We have been in close contact with Kurdish officials [and] with Iraqi officials to determine who ultimately was responsible for that.”
Kurdish officials in northern Iraq reportedly discovered “unexploded Iranian Fajr-1 107mm rockets near the site from where the attack was launched,” stoking international perceptions that Iranian-controlled forces conducted the operation.
Iran analysts perceived the attack as another example of the regime trying to increase pressure on Biden’s team to make concessions to Tehran in advance of any negotiations over the rehabilitation of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.
“It’s twofold: continuing to press their advantage in Iraq, using force and terror, as well as signaling to the new Biden [administration] that dealing with Iran is a multi-front game,” Foundation for Defense of Democracies senior fellow Behnam Ben Taleblu said. “Ultimately, Iran’s goal is to expel America. Rocket attacks that rock resolve is one step toward that goal.”
The stroke that spared the Americans any fatal injuries in the latest fusillade means the attack fell just short of crossing the Trump era red line warning that Tehran would be held responsible for militia attacks that killed an American. But the new U.S. commander in chief has yet to draw his own red line or signal what actions by Iran would prompt some form of American retaliation.
“Blinken’s omission actually relieves pressure on the Iraqis; they figure they have more time to deal with this, and they can kick it down the road,” the American Enterprise Institute’s Michael Rubin said.
That decision might avoid a repetition of the controversy in Baghdad that ensued after the Soleimani killing, an incident that threatened to jeopardize the legal basis for U.S. military operations in Iraq. Blinken’s forbearance might be “underplaying his hand,” Rubin suggested, but Price hinted at a possible response that avoids embarrassing Iraqi officials.
“We will, in coordination, with our Iraqi partners reserve the right to respond at a time and place of our choosing,” the State Department spokesman said. “And we will do so in coordination with our Iraqi partners. As I said, it’s a matter of Iraqi sovereignty. We are partners with the Iraqi people and the Iraqi government, and we’ll respond with that partnership in mind.”
At the White House, press secretary Jen Psaki uttered the same “time-and-place” message, adding, “Obviously, diplomacy is a priority.”
That approach stands in contrast to the one used to respond to Iran by the Trump administration, which frequently followed Trump’s lead by responding with threats and bluster. But the previous team did impose strict sanctions on Tehran, which the Biden administration has left in place.
