Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is edging out President Trump in four battleground states, three of which were seen as prime Trump pick-up opportunities in the fall.
Biden leads Trump in Wisconsin, a state the president won in 2016 over then-Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by 23,000 votes, 48% to 43% among likely voters, a New York Times-Siena College poll released Saturday found.
Wisconsin has been polled frequently during the 2020 general election, since, along with Michigan and Pennsylvania, it effectively handed the White House keys to Trump in 2016, albeit by narrow margins. But Biden, the two-term vice president, is doing well in other states that have not been home to so many surveys. He is also ahead in Minnesota, 50% to 41%, according to the live-caller survey. Clinton clinched Minnesota, a Democratic bastion since 1976, four years ago by 1.5 percentage points.
Biden is also in front in New Hampshire and Nevada, but by narrower margins, less two months out from Election Day on Nov. 3.
In New Hampshire, Delaware’s 36-year senator has a slight advantage, 45% to 42%. Last cycle, Clinton was the victor by 0.4%, the second-closest state contest after Michigan.
In Nevada, Biden leads, 46% to 42%, compared to when Clinton won in 2016 by 2 points.
While his support falls short of a 45%-threshold in all four states surveyed, the polls offer an initial assessment of whether Trump’s law-and-order rhetoric is resonating with the electorate.
In Wisconsin, Trump improved his standing by 6 points in the two-month period since June when New York Times-Siena College researchers found Biden was ahead by 11 points. There’s now only a 5-point berth between the pair. Yet, Trump is still on track to forfeit Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes to Biden, along with the other state’s combined 20 electoral votes, thanks to his unpopularity with women and perceived mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump seized on a tough on crime message this summer following black man George Floyd’s death on Memorial Day after a white police officer in Minneapolis knelt on his neck for almost nine minutes. Nationwide civil unrest against police brutality and racial injustice bubbled up again in August after Jacob Blake, a black man, was shot in the back seven times by a white officer during an arrest in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
Biden is outperforming Clinton with men, older voters, and those without a college degree, according to the studies. Seniors, however, would prefer him to take a harder stance on riots and looting, many believing Trump when he says Biden supports defunding the police.
The New York Times-Siena College poll was conducted via live interviews over landlines and cellphones from Tuesday to Friday. Its results have margins of error from plus or minus 3.9 points in Minnesota to 5.5 points in New Hampshire.
