Rebecca Bloomwood, a Millennial in a rocky love affair with her credit cards in the 2009 film “Confessions of a Shopaholic,” wasn’t the first person to wax poetic about the endorphin rush that comes from spending.
She just phrased it more memorably: “When I shop, the world gets better.”
Apparently, most Americans agree. On the long weekend following the Thanksgiving holiday, more than 164 million of them plan to shop, according to a survey from Prosper Insights and the National Retail Federation, the U.S. industry’s largest trade association.
For comparison, that’s more people than cast ballots for Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton combined in 2016 (about 128 million) or the voters counted so far in this month’s contentious midterm elections that gave Democrats control of the House of Representatives (about 114 million).
It’s also 13 percent larger than the entire population of Russia, whose attempts to sway the 2016 election won by Trump are the subject of an ongoing investigation by special counsel Robert Mueller.
“Consumers are ready to shop,” said Matthew Shay, head of the retail federation, which represents businesses with a payroll of 42 million that contribute about $2.6 trillion a year to the U.S. economy.
The trade group predicts the day after Thanksgiving, which according to retail legend was dubbed Black Friday because it starts the lucrative shopping season that moves store ledgers from net loss (in the red) to profit (in the black), will be the busiest day of the weekend, with 116 million shoppers.
Another 34 million plan to start on Thanksgiving Day itself.
Consumers will spend an average of $1,007 during the period through New Year’s Day, the retail federation projected, a 4.1 percent increase from last year that reflects upbeat economic data.
Not only has the country’s jobless rate reached a 50-year low of 3.7 percent, with more open positions than people to fill them, last year’s GOP-led tax cuts let consumers keep more of their paychecks. Many also received raises or bonuses as their employers’ top tax rates fell to 21 percent from 35 percent.
“All of that is reflected in consumers’ buying plans,” Shay said. “”Confidence is near an all-time high.”
Most of consumers’ average holiday spending, about $638, will go toward gifts, the retail group predicts, and the lion’s share of the rest, $215, will be spent on items like holiday cards and decorations.
“The holiday shopping season looks to be one of the strongest in years,” said Joseph Song, an economist with Charlotte, N.C.-based Bank of America.
Clothing, toys, video games and electronics are likely to be the top purchases, based on the lender’s survey of 3,000 customers, while older buyers prefer gift cards, which are more convenient for both buyer and recipient.
Altogether, retail spending in the period is likely to surge more than 4 percent to as much as $721 billion, the federation predicted.
At department-store chain Macy’s, sales floors “are in good shape for the holiday and have momentum,” Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gennette told investors on an earnings call earlier this month.
The Cincinnati-based company has refurbished a number of its properties and implemented online strategies that let customers buy on the Web and pick up purchases at the nearest store.
“The holidays are where Macy’s really shines, and I’m confident that we have the right strategies, the right merchandise and marketing, and the right experiences to win with today’s consumer,” he added. “When you look at where consumer spending is going to be during the holiday season, it’s a very good backdrop for us.”
