High unemployment due to the coronavirus pandemic could lead to as many as 154,000 deaths of despair, according to a new analysis.
“Deaths of despair were already a major problem prior to COVID-19, and if anything, these data show us that the numbers could get worse,” said Benjamin Miller, chief strategy officer of the Well Being Trust.
Economic insecurity, a loss of social connection, and a pause on all group gatherings exacerbate the stress of uncertainty that COVID-19 has propagated, according to the mental health policy organization. Even without a timeline for economic stabilization, the Well Being Trust estimated the rate of avoidable deaths could increase by about 1.6% with every percentage point increase in unemployment.
The coronavirus recession has already led to a record 33 million jobless claims. While the economy could, in theory, bounce back quickly, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the unemployment rate will climb to 16% and will likely hover at about 10% by the end of 2021.
“It’s impossible to predict,” Miller said. “The good things about ranges and predictions is that they are just that: predictions. We can change the course of the trends if we act now, but we have to be smart and invest in the right things at the right time.”
The Well Being Trust offered a range of possible death rates dependent on how quickly the economy can recover from the “coronavirus recession.” The estimates are based on the number of deaths of despair calculated at the end of 2018, which was about 181,600. With a fast rate of economic recovery after the pandemic ends, the number of deaths would likely hit about 44,000. However, if the economic recovery is a slow process, deaths of despair could surpass 154,000.
The extent of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic will likely lead to a long recovery time, however. The International Monetary Fund projected a “cumulative loss” of roughly $9 trillion around the world because billions have been forced to socially distance. Analysts with the IMF assumed that “the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020” without a guarantee that the crisis will be so short-lived.
The “Great Lockdown” has created the worst recession since the Great Depression, according to IMF economic counselor Gita Gopinath.
Just as different states experienced varying rates of coronavirus cases and deaths, different states experienced varying rates of unemployment claims. Initially, states with the most severe outbreaks as well as those that rely on tourism for state revenue, such as New York, saw the highest unemployment rates. As the “Great Lockdown” has spread, though, every sector of the economy has been damaged, and every state is expected to see a jump in avoidable deaths.
Midwestern states will see lower rates of death due to suicide and overdose. Meanwhile, tourism destinations such as Florida and California are likely to see more deaths of despair.
Most states that have experienced the most severe outbreaks and greatest rates of unemployment claims are hemorrhaging money to keep their economies afloat. State leaders have asked Congress for economic assistance to prop up their economies better, but it’s unclear what sort of aid the federal government might provide.
Democrats are lobbying for $1 trillion in funding to go to state and local governments as part of the fourth economic relief package to pass. However, Senate Republicans are apprehensive about passing another hefty economic package until they can see exactly how the trillions already passed are distributed and to what extent they’ll boost the economy.
Miller at the Well Being Trust says the money that Democrats are fighting for is crucial not just to shore up state economies but also to bolster state Medicaid systems so that low-income earners can get the mental healthcare they need.
“There is a role for our federal government to help our state Medicaid programs,” Miller said. “Some of this could come through an increase in the federal match for mental health services. Others of it may be through investments in the [Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration] block grants, whatever it is. If we specify that these dollars need to support Medicaid and the most vulnerable, it could make a big difference.”
