CHICAGO — The Republican presidential primary rolls through Illinois Tuesday, giving President Obama’s home state — a longtime Democratic stronghold — a rare opportunity to shape the GOP race.
For front-runner Mitt Romney, Illinois could provide the decisive victory needed to reclaim the mantle as the party’s inevitable nominee. For his chief rival, Sen. Rick Santorum, it’s a chance to build on momentum created in the South and to prolong a race party leaders fear is weakening Romney as it wears on.
Not since then-Vice President George H.W. Bush beat Sen. Bob Dole here in 1988, effectively ending Dole’s campaign and ensuring Bush the nomination, has the Land of Lincoln played such a pivotal role in choosing the Republican nominee.
Though dominated by Democratic Chicago, Illinois’ populous Republican-leaning suburbs and vast rural regions south of the city make it more like the industrial battlegrounds of Michigan and Ohio, where Romney barely survived Santorum’s challenges. Recent polls show the two in a virtual dead heat just days before Illinoisans vote.
Local officials say early voting has been light, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for Romney despite the stakes. But in a race in which collecting convention delegates is proving more decisive than winning primaries, Illinois’ complex voting rules give Romney an edge.
Indeed, Romney could lose the election and still win more of the state’s 69 convention delegates than Santorum.
That’s because the party leadership, fearful of how the presidential nominee will affect down-ballot Republican races this fall, closed ranks behind Romney in the state’s 18 congressional districts. That gives Romney an edge because Illinoisans vote not just for the candidate, but for the local delegates supporting that candidate and Romney’s delegates are far better known and more influential locally than Santorum’s
“I don’t think these guys generate a whole lot of excitement,” said former Gov. Jim Edgar, who hasn’t endorsed anyone. “If you look at the delegate list in Illinois, some of the people are supporting Romney out of fear. They think he would be better at the top of the ticket in the fall than Santorum or [former House Speaker] Newt Gingrich.
“Santorum, who doesn’t play with the independents and the moderates that are important in Illinois, could cause problems down the ticket,” he added.
Both Romney and Santorum stepped up their appearances here as Illinois grew in importance.
“We made a statement two years ago by taking Obama’s Senate seat with [Republican Sen.] Mark Kirk. So our party is fired up,” said state Rep. Randy Ramey, the party’s chairman in Republican-dominated DuPage County. “Gov. Romney does have that broad appeal and he will have the votes.”
Santorum warned supporters at a Christian school in suburban Arlington Heights that he is all that stands between Romney, whose conservative credentials they question, and the nomination. They could “shake up this race like no state could shake it up,” he said.
But Santorum’s campaign is focused less on Romney than on Gingrich, whose insistence on remaining in the race is splitting the conservatives Santorum needs to win.
“If we can get Gingrich down to 8 points from 14 percent, then I think we win Illinois,” said Jon Zahn, Santorum’s Illinois campaign director. “There’s still some people clinging to Gingrich and it’s a big mistake. A vote for Gingrich is a vote for Romney.
