Georgia’s move to ease COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions earlier than most states offers the clearest window yet into voters’ intent to reward or punish elected officials and candidates for this approach to the deadly pandemic.
Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s campaign is already eyeing Georgia as a state that could be flipped in November. Both Senate seats are on the ballot the same day, along with at least two competitive House districts.
Months before any votes are cast, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is moving quickly to reopen the state, putting Georgia in the spotlight of a national debate over whether the United States should risk worsening the health crisis to save the economy.
Kemp, who faces reelection in 2022, has been criticized by members of his own party for the move. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham said he was worried Georgia was “going too fast too soon” in trying to get back to normal.
It could be an opportunity for Democrats, who have eyed the state as a possible pickup in this year’s elections, and could decide who ends up with a Senate majority.
Democrats have good reason for optimism about their 2020 chances in Georgia. In 2018, Democrats flipped a House seat Republicans held since Newt Gingrich was first elected to Congress in 1978. Democrat Stacey Abrams lost to Kemp in the closest gubernatorial race in the state in more than 50 years.
This year, Georgia has two Senate seats up for grabs. One of the Republican senators facing re-election, Kelly Loeffler, appointed in January, is under scrutiny for selling millions in stocks before the economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic. She has denied wrongdoing, saying the selloffs were done by third-party advisers, but it’s given Democrats fodder for attacks.
Sen. David Perdue, a business executive before winning his Senate seat in 2014, was not considered particularly vulnerable at the start of the 2020 cycle. But the unknown political landscape amid the coronavirus crisis is giving Democrats hope at having a shot at denying him a second term.
“It’s possible,” Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia, told the Washington Examiner about Democrats’ ability to flip the seats. “Although, if you were going to Las Vegas to put some money down, you’d bet on the Republicans.”
Three election forecasters have both races tipping toward Republicans. Democratic candidates in Georgia have also raised far less than their counterparts in other battleground states. The lack of ad reservations from Democratic and Republican campaign committees and super PACs suggests the races are not as close as Democrats hoped.
“The Democrats have tried to make Georgia a thing for a long time. The reality is, it remains a red state,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Nathan Brand told the Washington Examiner.
But what happens once the state allows businesses to begin reopening on Friday could determine who voters support, Bullock said.
“Those decisions aren’t being made by Perdue or Loeffler, but they are being made by [other] Republicans,” Bullock noted.
Loeffler, the wealthiest member of Congress, could come under fire for her newly purchased private jet if the economy isn’t revived soon, he said.
“You can easily see an ad being run with the bottom line being that, given her extraordinary wealth, can she relate to you, an average Georgian, who was maybe out of work for a while, maybe hasn’t gotten their job back yet as a result of the pandemic?” Bullock said.
Her biggest rival, a member of her own party, Rep. Doug Collins, has already sought to paint her as out of touch.
“Every day, Sen. Loeffler is working to keep Georgians safe and provide relief for those impacted most by COVID-19. From championing farmers, small businesses, and hardworking Georgians through the CARES Act to using her own personal resources to support local hospitals and organizations, she is putting people — not politics — first,” her communications director Stephen Lawson said in a statement to the Washington Examiner.
Perdue is considered to be in a safer position for reelection than Loeffler, who was appointed by Kemp in December.
