A new poll of four swing states from Quinnipiac University shows Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump slipping in three likely must-win states.
Including Libertarian party candidate Gary Johnson, the survey shows Trump behind in North Carolina to Hillary Clinton 47 to 43 percent, tied with her in Iowa, and only up a point in the typically bankable state of Georgia. It and North Carolina, worth a combined 31 electoral votes, are virtually necessary for a Trump victory. Iowa, worth six, has been of the Republican’s better states in general election polling.
But not according to Quinnipiac. Trump had led in the Hawkeye state by an average of 3.7 points, according to the Real Clear Politics average, but the last survey counted there was from early October. Quinnipiac’s own numbers from this time last month had Trump up 7. The four-point deficit in North Carolina is in-line with most recent surveys there, and even a tad higher. Four of the six most recent tallies of the heavily polled state revealed a Clinton advantage of one to three points. The two other polls were well outside that range, with one showing Clinton up seven and the other Trump in front by three. They all averaged out to a two-point edge for the Democrat.
Trump has led Georgia consistently, amid the potential demographic problem of high black-voter turnout. Four polls this month have given him a lead of two to six points, and the previous three, released in the last week, average to a 3.3-point advantage. The razor-thin one-point spread is the narrowest result since August, when, for a three-week stretch, the lead bounced Trump and Clinton.
Quinnipiac polled one other state: Virginia, where the Trump team pulled its resources earlier this month. No surprise, then, that Clinton leads the state 50 to 38 percent.
A cluster of recent national surveys have shown the race nudging back toward the Republican a bit, though the Real Clear Politics average deficit is still a significant 5.7 points.
