A friend passes along an interesting report on China’s “Project 048,” the PLA Navy’s strategic plan to construct six nuclear and conventionally powered aircraft carriers. The first two conventionally powered carriers will reportedly be laid down this year, with more quickly to follow. Once completed, Project 048 should be the final step in the PLAN’s transformation from a green to blue water Navy (or an expeditionary navy, if you prefer the British terminology). Though plenty of brass in the DoD are sweating China’s rise as a first-world power, this new carrier fleet isn’t all that dire a prospect. Their technology is still a full decade behind ours, they have no experience in deploying carriers in combat (whereas we have plenty), and — perhaps most importantly — it will take China years to master the harsh arithmetic of flight deck operations. Further, it’s likely to spook an already nervous Japan into matching the Chinese in naval power — strengthening our powerful far east alliance with Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore. My friend, a former submariner who shares my skepticism, finished off his email with “thanks for the targets Beijing!“
