Roughly 12 months ago President Joe Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win Arizona’s Electoral College votes since 1996. Today, his job approval rating in the state is cratering.
In a fresh poll from Arizona polling firm OH Predictive Insights, Biden garnered a 42% job approval rating. The president is doing even worse — 35% — with independents, a key voting bloc in a Southwestern battleground that has evolved into a bona fide swing state. Overall, 55% of Arizona voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as commander in chief. Biden’s political troubles have not translated into an improvement in the standing of former President Donald Trump.
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Trump’s favorable ratings remain underwater in Arizona, clocking in a tick below Biden’s, at negative 12% overall and negative 26% among independents. However, the 46th president’s job approval and favorable ratings are what is going to drive votes in the 2022 election, and on that front, the White House has work to do if they hope to shield Democrats from a shellacking in the midterm elections — especially among voters unaffiliated with either party.
“It isn’t surprising that Biden’s approval ratings among Democrats and Republicans are contrary of each other,” Mike Noble, OH Predictive Insights chief of research, said in a statement. “However, independents in a key battleground state rescinding their approval of the president is worth paying attention to if Biden is looking to improve his numbers in Arizona.”
One Democrat surely monitoring these numbers? Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, who is up for reelection to a full six-year term next year after winning a special election in 2020. In that contest, Kelly beat appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally 51.2% to 48.8%, as Biden defeated Trump by approximately 11,000 votes. Smelling blood, several Republicans are running in their party’s Senate primary for the opportunity to challenge Kelly in 2022.
This poll was conducted Nov. 1–8 and surveyed registered voters. It has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points. Among other key findings:
- Biden’s job approval among Democrats is strong but differs according to age. Democrats 18–54 give the president a 77% job approval rating; those age 55 and up give him a 92% rating.
- Biden’s approval among suburban women, the same demographic that drove opposition to Trump, is just 41%. The president’s approval among “parents of minor children” is only slightly better, at 45%.
- Biden’s job approval rating on key issues is underwater, registering a negative 31% on immigration, negative 14% on the economy and negative 17% on foreign policy. The president also is underwater, although only slightly, on the coronavirus (negative 2%) and the environment (negative 4%).
