PRESIDENT BUSH’S State of the Union address last night should be judged in the context of a remarkable political shift since the September 11 terrorist attacks. Before then, Republicans trailed Democrats on two important counts: which party most Americans identify with, and whether they intend to vote for a Democrat or a Republican in the next congressional election. Now, not only has Bush’s 30-percentage point surge in popularity after September 11 been sustained, but Republicans have opened solid leads in party ID and congressional vote intention. Republican poll numbers, in fact, are the party’s best in decades. The question is what has prompted this dramatic shift. And the answer is issue inversion. Issues that were paramount in voters’ minds before the attacks–health care, Social Security, the environment–are now peripheral. These are Democratic issues. And issues that were peripheral–terrorism, national security, homeland security–are now central. These are Republican issues. Bush pursues the war and talks constantly about security. Democrats insist they’re with the president on the war, but since they don’t hold the White House they can’t direct the war effort. Instead, they spend most of their time talking up Democratic domestic issues, including the newest one, the Enron scandal. For the time being and perhaps longer, Americans prefer both Bush’s decisive actions in pressing the war and his tough, patriotic message. And Bush gave them plenty of both in his speech to the nation. He vowed to carry the war on terrorism to more than a dozen countries that either harbor terrorists, are developing weapons of mass destruction, or both. In the most emphatic terms, Bush promised that he won’t allow America to become vulnerable. “I will not wait on events, while dangers gather,” he said. “I will not stand by, as peril draws closer and closer.” The president gave conventional domestic issues the shortest shrift possible. No president has spent less time on those issues in a State of the Union in memory. Bush said September 11 had created a “unique moment of opportunity” to rid the world of terrorism, protect America, and develop new outlets for keeping Americans united. “We must not let this moment pass,” he declared. Of course this moment is good for Bush and Republicans politically. That doesn’t mean the rhetoric of his first State of the Union was ill-motivated. Rather, the post-September 11 moment is one where what’s good for the world and the country also happens to be politically popular. It’s a moment Bush doesn’t want to let go of, nor should he. And in his address, he didn’t. There are more battles ahead before the war on terrorism is won, he indicated, and he intends for America to fight, acting unilaterally if necessary. As long as the moment lasts, Democratic talk of “Enronitis” (Sen. Joe Lieberman’s word) sweeping the nation will go nowhere. Promises of new health care benefits won’t rise to the top of the public’s agenda. And complaints about deficit spending by the Bush administration won’t get traction. For now, Democrats look smaller than usual, Republicans bigger. Bush’s speech fed a political environment that will keep that contrast alive. Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
