VanHollen Dissects the Democrats’ Win

Roll Call covers the after-action report by Chris VanHollen (D-MD), Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). VanHollen gets credit for the 24-seat gain (so far) Democrats achieved in the 2008 election. He’s quick to point out that despite the impressive Democratic gains, it seems like Barack Obama’s coattails had little to do with it:

“A lot of people did not focus on the fact that in order to win a lot of these seats, we had to win a lot of votes” from supporters of Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) said in an interview on Monday… Of all the Democratic pickups this year, only three were in districts that Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) carried in the 2004 White House election: Connecticut’s 4th district, where former investment banker Jim Himes ousted Rep. Christopher Shays, and New Mexico’s 1st and New York’s 25th districts, where Democrats won open seats. Van Hollen praised victorious Democrats for figuring out how to prevail in challenging districts. He cited Idaho’s 1st district, Alabama’s 2nd district and Maryland’s 1st district as places where his party’s candidates faced long odds. “They had to create an identity for themselves that was separate and distinct from the national Democratic ticket,” he said… According to the DCCC, the House Democratic candidate performed better than Obama in 42 competitive districts, while Obama did better than the Democrat in 14 districts. The data are not fully available in 11 additional competitive districts…

Reading between the lines, VanHollen has reason to be worried about his success. The current Democratic majority rests on dozens of Members of Congress who will still need to craft “separate and distinct” identities from the national Democratic party. With 81 of the 256 House Democrats now residing in districts won by George Bush in 2004, Democrat leaders will need to be highly attentive to the views of their moderate minority when they debate things like the automaker bailout, tax increases, immigration, urban aid, and other dicey issues. VanHollen was concerned enough about the challenge going forward that he tried to escape the DCCC job for the coming cycle, knowing that he is almost certain to lose seats in 2010. Of course, defending a strong majority is a nice challenge to face; Congressional Republicans would trade in a heartbeat. On another note, VanHollen’s presentation again reminds Republicans of the importance of competing for all 435 House seats. Every credible candidate helps conservatives in the next election — whether a given candidate wins or not. If nothing else, it turns previously safe races into ones where the opposition is forced to spend money better used elsewhere. And when the political winds eventually blow your way, it seems that one party winds up with lots of near misses, while the other enjoys surprise wins.

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