Voters swung hard toward the Republicans in late September, suggesting the Democrats’ summer surge is waning as the midterm elections approach, according to a new poll from Monmouth University.
In the survey, the Democrats saw their standing in the generic ballot shrink from a 50% to 43% lead over the Republicans in August to a 47% to 44% deficit last month, with more respondents preferring Republican control of Congress. The poll ran from Sept. 21-25. The survey also found economic concerns trumping abortion, with 82% saying inflation was their top priority and 68% saying jobs and unemployment were most important, compared to 56% who said the same about abortion.
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Concern about the loss of federal protections for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling was a big driver in the Democrats’ improvement in the polls in late August and early September. Data from the latest Monmouth Poll suggest that rise has subsided, reverting to a political atmosphere that would be expected to produce substantial Republican gains.
“Because the congressional map favors the GOP, Democrats need to do more than ‘keep it close’ in order to hold onto their House majority. One roadblock for them is that the issue picture favors Republicans,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.
The survey had more bad news for Democrats:
- President Joe Biden’s job approval rating clocked in at 38%.
- Of the 54% of voters who said it “is very important to have their preferred party in control of Congress,” 62% wanted the GOP to be in charge on Capitol Hill, while 58% favored Democratic majorities.
- Voters who want Republican majorities in Congress also are more likely to vote on Nov. 8, with 65% saying they are “extremely motivated to vote this year,” compared to 58% of voters who want Democratic majorities saying the same.
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The Monmouth Poll surveyed 806 “adults” and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
