Thefolly of predicting economic shifts is pretty apparent to anyone who revisits Freddie Mac’s monthly economic summary from January 2010. At the start of the new year, the mortgage giant’s economic staff projected the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage would rise slightly more than 1 percentage point over the course of the year, ending 2010 at 6 percent. In fact, during the entire year Freddie Mac’s quoted average interest rate never rose above 5.21 percent and, as 2010 draws to a close, stands at 4.61 percent.

While its year-end summary is not yet available, in November Freddie Mac predicted rates will move up 1 or 2 basis points each quarter of 2011, and will finish the year at 4.8 percent. Over the entire year the interest rate is expected to average 4.6 percent, identical to the average in 2010.