Assessing the War

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THE TESTIMONY DELIVERED YESTERDAY by General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker provides an opportunity to assess progress in Iraq since last September (the last time the two men were in Washington, D.C.), and evaluate what is needed moving forward. Last fall’s testimonies noted the initial improvements that resulted from the U.S. troop “surge,” which reached its full deployment only three months prior to the September testimony. Seven months have now passed (ten months since the surge troops were fully deployed), and General Petraeus testified yesterday that Iraq’s security situation has continued to improve: “Security in Iraq is better than it was when Ambassador Crocker and I reported to you last September, and it is significantly better than it was 15 months ago when Iraq was on the brink of civil war.”

A combination of factors has produced the improved situation. In addition to the increase in U.S. forces through the surge, the change in U.S. counterinsurgency strategy has been significant. Related to that shift in strategy, the Awakening movement and the Sons of Iraq have had a cognizable impact by helping Iraqis take the security situation into their own hands. The Mahdi Army’s ceasefire has reduced levels of violence, as has the fact that al Qaeda in Iraq’s barbarous activities alienated it from the Iraqi population. And the much-maligned Iraqi security forces have increased in number and capability. But the picture painted yesterday was not entirely positive: as General Petraeus emphasized, progress in Iraq has been “significant but uneven.”

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