Republicans are still fighting tooth and nail to maintain their majority in the Senate, but their prospects in the House don’t look nearly as dubious, even with the X-factor of Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy looming over many office-seekers.
Democrats would need take 30 seats from the GOP to take over the House. NPR has ranked the top 40 districts by likelihood of them flipping party control, and it looks like it may be too tall an order:
House Republicans were already going to have losses this year, having essentially maxed out their majority, hitting 247 seats after the 2014 midterms that gave them a majority the party hasn’t seen since the Great Depression. And, in a presidential year when turnout leans left, Democrats were going to make gains. However, Democrats’ opportunities are limited, hampered by the unfavorable map that was handed to them post-2010 redistricting. Some mid-decade, court-ordered redistricting will give Democrats a slight boost to start off. They’re favored to pick up one seat (maybe two) in Florida and one in Virginia, though Republicans are favored to gain one in Florida too. From there, Democrats have 26 other seats held by Republicans that President Obama won in 2012. Those are among their prime targets, but even in those, they’ve left opportunities on the table.
NPR notes that the most likely outcome for Democrats at the beginning of October was a 10- to 15-seat gain. “Now, that number could rise to 20 seats, which would be a very good night for them, according to Democratic operatives,” the story continues.
“Very good,” but not enough. Read NPR’s analysis of the 40 high-profile seats here.
