The bond market on Wall Street is a poker game with many, many millions at stake. Look beyond the pinstripe suits who pore over ledgers at the foot of Manhattan and you will see them fret over the same questions I face when I throw chips on the poker table in my garage. We all weigh risk and reward.

Should I bet a few bucks on my low straight, when Peter has the face of a guy holding a flush? Based on years of research — watching him play — I know he rarely bluffs. Steve looks like he’s hiding a full house. Five bucks against a pot of $30? I fold.