Donald Trump was down by six percentage points to Hillary Clinton two weeks ago, five last week, and three in the new Fox News poll in the presidential race. This isn’t a surge. But Trump is gaining. And there’s pattern behind it.
When Trump is talking about issues—it was urban renewal yesterday—he no longer dominates the news cycle. As a result, Clinton gets more attention from the media. This is good for him, bad for her. In this situation, he gradually gains ground.
For Trump, the key is to upset Clinton’s strategy. She wants him to be the top issue—his character, personality, and lack of control of his emotions—while she stays in the background, waiting for him to blunder. If he doesn’t and the spotlight shifts to her, voters see a weak and untrustworthy leader. Trump benefits from the comparison—that is, until he commits a gaffe. That’s the pattern.
It’s happened a few times before. After the conventions, Trump continued for days to attack the Muslim father of an American captain killed in Iraq. The father had criticized him in a speech at the Democratic convention. Trump said he had “a right to respond.” But the longer he responded, prolonging the gaffe, the further he fell behind Clinton.
But in a week or two, he began to crawl back closer to Clinton. Then he got off track again by quarreling with a former beauty contest winner about her weight. This was a gaffe. His poll numbers dipped, only to begin inching up once more in a couple weeks as he got a grip on his behavior.
His rise was interrupted again on October 9 when the video with his lewd comments about women was leaked. It caused another drop. But soon the pattern repeated itself and now he’s behind Clinton only three percentage points, at least in the Fox poll.
If Trump focuses on serious issues and doesn’t spoil his progress by saying something stupid or inappropriate, it’s possible he’ll draw even closer to Clinton. But maybe not. Several tracking polls already have shown Trump tied or a point or two ahead. But most of the major surveys have him trailing.
With less than two weeks before the election on November 8, there can’t be many undecided voters left. Trump will need to increase his support among Republicans. The Fox poll found that 81 percent of Republicans intend to vote for Trump. The rule of thumb is a GOP presidential candidate must get 90 percent.
Trump’s latest bump contributed to the slight improvement for Republicans in House elections. In competitive races, a number of GOP candidates have ticked up a few points. They had slipped earlier when the Trump video was the top story.
In Senate races, voters have not routinely identified Republican candidates with Trump, hard as Democrats have tried to make the link. In Nevada, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto has insisted Republican Joe Heck is strongly pro-Trump. (Heck isn’t.) Her tactic doesn’t appear to be working. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll gives Heck 49 percent to 42 percent edge.
