Republicans performed poorly among independents in the 2006 elections, a major factor contributing to losing the congressional majority. Some exit polls showed a decline of at least 18 percent in GOP support among these voters between the 2004 and 2006 contests. So independents represent a key constituency that Republicans want to win back–and a critical battleground demographic for both parties in the ’08 race. Pew Research recently released some data that suggests independents will swing back to the GOP if Senator Clinton is the Democratic nominee. But in a McCain/Obama race, the Illinois Senator garners considerable support from these voters. The survey finds that among independents, McCain beats Clinton 50 percent to 44 percent, but trails Obama 43 percent to 49 percent. McCain beats Obama among male independents 47 percent to 44 percent, but gets trounced among female independents by 20 points (37 percent to 57 percent). McCain also leads Obama among independents over 50 (50 percent to 39 percent), while among independents under 50, the numbers flip (McCain 37 percent, Obama 58 percent). Pollsters know “independent” voters are an odd group to pin down politically. For example, they are not ideologically homogeneous. They range from Ralph Nader liberals to extremely conservative libertarians. Nonetheless, given that most Republicans will vote for McCain and Democrats will ultimately rally around their nominee, these independent voters are worth watching to get some clues for the general election.
