The few discussions I’ve had with Israeli officials, I’ve always been amazed at the gap between our understanding of the threat from a nuclear Iran and theirs. For instance, I’ve heard numerous Israeli officials describe Iran as deterrable. One Israeli nuclear official suggested that while the Iranian leadership might not fear the destruction of Tehran, targeting the holy city of Qom could achieve the desired effect. In other words, everyone is deterrable, you just need to figure out what your enemy holds most dear. The reason for this rhetorical approach is that surveys of Israeli public have shown just how vulnerable the country is even to Iran’s possession of a nuclear weapon. A not insignificant number of the country’s citizens might emigrate — and these would presumably the country’s best and brightest and wealthiest. Indeed, today Jeffrey Goldberg posts an interview with Israel’s new prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in which he reports that Israel’s new government believes this is one of Iran’s key aims: “The first-stage Iranian goal, in the understanding of Netanyahu and his advisers, is to frighten Israel’s most talented citizens into leaving their country.” Given that, one would expect Netanyahu to try to calm the fears of his citizens in light of the very real possibility that Iran will go nuclear regardless of any action by the United States or Israel. Instead, Israel’s new Prime Minister hypes the threat. He tells Goldberg:
The Olmert government tried to walk a fine line between scaring the Israeli people and increasing international pressure and domestic support for tough action against Iran. Netanyahu appears determined to deal with the problem head on. It’s not clear that Israel can or will strike against Iran’s nuclear program, but it would be an enormous mistake to write off this type of language as mere bluster. If Netanyahu thinks a nuclear-armed Iran is really that bad, then he must do everything in his power to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
