The optics of Friday’s historic rapprochement between North and South Korea was indisputable.
There were many firsts, including the first time a North Korean leader stepped foot on South Korean soil. Many noted the warm embrace between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un after they signed a joint declaration committing to the twin goals of denuclearization and ending the Korea war with a formal peace treaty, was something that seemed unthinkable just a few months ago.
But longtime Korea watchers warn against an excess of enthusiasm. Here’s what some of them say:
“A remarkable, historical moment that offered a brief glimpse of what may be. The fundamental question remains: whatever deal is struck, how do we implement and verify that North Korea is holding up its end? We must remember: North Korea is still North Korea. Kim is still the same person he was when he purged potential rivals, imprisoned thousands of his people, and had his relatives killed. This was a hopeful moment, but extreme caution is well warranted.” — Abraham Denmark, director of the Asia Program and senior fellow with the Kissinger Institute.
“Both sides clearly are incentivized to put the best possible spin on all of this. North Korea has made various agreements that it has failed to live up to, and the reason that there’s a building at Panmunjom is because we have an armistice, not a peace treaty, because of a war that North Korea started. Kim Jong Un might want to look in the mirror to know why it’s taken so long for an inter-Korean summit.” — Dean Cheng, the Heritage Foundation, in an email sent with the subject line, “Don’t pop the champagne yet.”
“Unfortunately, South Korea’s Moon Jae-in seems to be seeking a separate peace with the North. That would legitimate and help perpetuate the horrifyingly brutal North Korean regime. In the name of ‘unification,’ the South seems set to restart on steroids an earlier, failed inter-Korean détente called the ‘Sunshine Policy.’ That threatens the united front that has created real pressure on Kim actually to fulfill his promised elimination of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. It could enable him to continue the brutal repression of his long-suffering people and undermine President Trump’s efforts to keep him from threatening the rest of us.” — Frank Gaffney, president and CEO of Center for Security Policy.
“The fact that this is the third inter-Korean summit means that we should not perhaps get carried away with the use of terms such as ‘historic.’ But when we consider that just a few months ago many were genuinely concerned that war might break out in Korea, the fact that this summit has taken place at all is a remarkable achievement. Much of this is of course due to Moon Jae-In’s extraordinary efforts and as well as his skills in diplomacy. But we should also note that North Korea’s charm offensive since the beginning of the year has been unprecedented, and in that respect alone, we may be entering new uncharted waters rather than simply repeated past history.” — Kevin Gray, the Wilson Center.
“This is really just the first step in broader diplomatic efforts. Similar to a game of chess, this move opens up a series of possible developments but in many ways, the hard work really begins now. The most important question going forward: Is Kim really willing to abandon the nuclear program he has so heavily invested in? Or will he, as most Chinese experts suggest, be more likely try to seek an agreement not to develop beyond his current capabilities? — Paul Haenle, director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center.
“For Kim, this was his first live appearance on the international stage and a significant milestone moment for him in his goal of showing that he can be an international statesman like other world leaders — and is not just a young man who inherited power of an impoverished country while he was in his mid-20s. For us, this summit is a sterling opportunity to get to know Kim Jong Un. Moon and his delegation will glean valuable information about Kim, how he operates and what he wants from this summit, and that will pave the way for an anticipated summit with President Donald Trump.” — Jean Lee, director of the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy.
“The North Koreans are making a very smart and strategic bet that Donald Trump will be happy with the short-term gratification of meetings and photo-ops and will either be incapable of following through on his stated goal of eliminating the North Korean nuclear weapons threat or will be in such deep trouble or out of office at home in the United States so that his position simply doesn’t matter.” — Jamie Metzl, nonresident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
