Joe Biden slid through a crowded Democratic primary with lackluster organizing and fundraising. It made for an engaging political comeback story, but it set him up at a disadvantage as he transitions to a general election fight against President Trump.
When Biden had humiliating fourth- and fifth-place finishes in the first nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, the campaign was forced to confront criticisms about its operation that it had brushed off for months. The campaign had fewer campaign operatives than his competitors in early states, attracted smaller crowds, was not known for outreach innovation, and badly lagged behind his competitors in fundraising.
No candidate had ever performed so poorly in the first two primary and caucus states and gone on to win the primary, but the former vice president prevailed as the presumptive Democratic nominee due in part to name recognition, his experience as Obama’s vice president, and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn’s endorsement that helped him win the state in a blowout.
But in swing states where crucial electoral votes could be decided by razor-thin margins, organizing capacity could be the difference between winning and losing. And Biden is running behind.
“When you look at the numbers, Team Trump is winning by every metric. From fundraising to voter enthusiasm to volunteer recruitment, the Trump campaign is dominating the Biden campaign,” Sarah Matthews, deputy press secretary for the Trump campaign, told the Washington Examiner.
The Trump campaign says that it made more than 5 million phone calls last week, a large number considering that it did not hit 5 million in 2018, a midterm year, until the week before Election Day. As of March 13, it had 1.1 million trained volunteers and had made 21 million contacts with voters.
With the coronavirus pandemic keeping Trump and Biden from the campaign trail, Biden’s smaller digital infrastructure is more apparent. Not only is the candidate himself known to be technologically challenged, telling people during one debate to “go to Joe 30330” rather than text the number, but his campaign staff is also lagging behind Trump in the digital sphere.
Trump has 15 times the number of likes and followers that Biden has on Facebook and Twitter, and he is far outpacing Biden on YouTube as well. While Trump’s digital team has over 100 people — and Hillary Clinton’s digital team had nearly 100 people at this point in 2016, according to Politico — Biden has only about 25.
Biden, though, stays positive when talking about his digital organization. At a virtual fundraiser last Wednesday, Biden said that his staff told him it had “63 million-plus views” on campaign videos on all platforms in the last month.
And Biden may have an advantage that the president does not: support from better-organized allied groups hoping to defeat Trump.
“The Biden primary election was a relatively lackluster effort in terms of campaign outreach, and it may be that, as Kerry did in 2004, the ground campaign (or its COVID-19 equivalent) will be left to allied organizations,” Donald Green, a political science professor at Columbia University, told the Washington Examiner.
Green added that “the Trump campaign in 2020 seems to be emphasizing traditional political outreach far more than in 2016.”
Biden’s campaign also hopes that his messaging style in the time of the coronavirus leaves voters with a more positive impression of the former vice president. Trump’s aggressive, confrontational style is more likely to go viral on the internet, but Biden’s campaign wants to provide a positive alternative and connect with voters on a more personal level.
“Door-knocking, which is the gold standard of organizing, is about having the conversation and making the case, but it’s as much about showing up and caring enough about that person,” Biden campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon told the New York Times Magazine. “So now that we can’t have door-knocking, how do we get the essence of that? We do it by showing up for people, checking in on them, seeing how they’re doing, building the relationship. We’re not calling to ask for something from you. We’re calling you because we want to make sure you’re OK. People are going to remember that.”
While the Biden campaign puts a positive spin on its organizing efforts, his campaign looks like a bigger uphill battle when considering fundraising and polling. Biden and the Democratic National Committee are about $187 million behind Trump and the Republican National Committee. An Emerson College national poll conducted April 26-28 found an enthusiasm gap between Trump and Biden supporters: 64% of Trump supporters said that they were very or extremely excited to vote for him, compared to 45% for Biden.
That leaves Biden’s campaign is in much of the same position as it was in just before the Democratic presidential primaries: low on cash, inspiring less voter enthusiasm, and behind the curve on organizing efforts. The question is whether he can start from behind and pull off a win in the general election as he did in the primary.
