The Humpty-Dumpty Party?

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Last night’s State of the Union was remarkable in at least one respect: it may be the only speech you’ll hear this year from a national politician that did not center on ‘change.’ And despite the significance of the president’s goals of peace in the Middle East, tax reduction, entitlement reform, national security, and other issues, this image may be the most important take-away of the night. It was widely noted that Senators Obama and Clinton refrained from exchanging greetings at the State of the Union last night. It wasn’t a one-time thing either, as the Politico reports that they refused to acknowledge each other during Senate business earlier in the day. Much attention has been paid to the divisions this election has exposed in the Republican party, but Democrats don’t seem to be faring much better. They’re divided by race, gender, and–most of all–the Clintons. Will the Democrats be able to put their party together again? Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg sees an opportunity for the Republican candidate in the Democratic civil war:

Black voters aren’t likely to defect en masse to the GOP, but many might regard an Obama defeat as evidence that the Democratic establishment didn’t play fair and took whatever steps it needed to deny Obama the nomination. And you can pretty much bet that some high-profile black leader will comment that the Democratic Party is happy to get black votes but isn’t willing to nominate a black candidate… This, of course, opens up another whole can of worms. Would Clinton need to ask Obama to join her as her running mate, even though the two camps seem increasingly hostile? And if Clinton is the nominee and seems to pander to African-Americans to keep them energized for a ticket without an African-American on it, would that create problems for the party among swing voters? Clinton’s even bigger problem in a general election could be with independents, who might be put off by the former first lady’s tough tactics. Obama won a plurality of independents who participated in the Democratic contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

It’s best not to read too much into this; it’s a rare politician who can’t be bought. We’ll probably see the loser of this battle give a warm and smiling endorsement after getting concessions and promises from the winner. That might be especially true of Obama, who has a bright future ahead of him win or lose and is almost certain to get offered a spot on the ticket. Still it’s starting to seem that the composition of both major parties might be more in flux this year than it has been in a generation. The winner in 2008 may be the candidate who does a better job of figuring out which way the wind is blowing, and takes advantage of a new opportunity.

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