Compared to self-identified partisans, independent voters march more to the beat of pop culture and the dominant news narrative. They pay closer attention to Tina Fey’s weekly lampooning of Sarah Palin than the speeches or policy positions of the presidential campaigns. Independents are also among the most volatile groups in tracking surveys because they lack party attachments and listen to the “loudest voice in the cafeteria,” as University of Maryland political scientist Jim Gimpel likes to say. So it comes as no surprise that some of the biggest moves in Diageo/Hotline poll occurred among those the survey calls “suburban sprawlers” (college educated independents). For example, it found McCain losing this group by only 3 points following the GOP convention. But in the latest track, Obama leads by 19. The news is not all bad for McCain. The same poll shows him moving from a 5 point deficit among Whole Foods Women (white, married, college educated women) to a 3 point lead. McCain could win some of these “suburban sprawlers” back–because they are easily swayed by events. Many will switch back and forth until Election Day. But the question is what will have more impact: news about Palin’s performance tonight or Fey’s next round of pummeling on Saturday?
