Dean Heller and Adam Laxalt swap roles amid twin bids at a political comeback

Dean Heller and Adam Laxalt are aiming for a Nevada do-over but with a 2022 twist.

Heller, the losing Republican nominee for the Senate in 2018 when he ran as the incumbent, announced this week he is mounting a campaign for governor — attempting a political comeback by seeking an office the 61-year-old has long coveted. Laxalt, 43, the losing Republican nominee for governor in 2018 when he sought to advance from the state attorney general’s office, is trying to engineer a comeback of his own by running for the Senate.

“After serving Nevada in the Senate, I thought I was done with politics,” Heller says in a video announcing his 2022 gubernatorial campaign. “But look what’s happened to Nevada.”

The question is whether this Republican ticket in reverse will perform better in the midterm elections with President Joe Biden in the White House compared to three years ago when former President Donald Trump was commander in chief. Historically, the party without the presidency gains seats in midterm elections, which could bode well for Laxalt and Heller in a state where Biden beat Trump by just 2.4 percentage points.

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Rather than running for Senate reelection against Trump headwinds (in Heller’s case) or seeking an open governor’s mansion under the same miserable conditions (in Laxalt’s case), both have an opportunity to ride a Biden rebuke to victory — Heller against first-term Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak and Laxalt against freshman Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.

Although Laxalt is heavily favored to win the Republican Senate nod, Heller has a bona fide primary.

Heller has superior name identification and a history of statewide success, first winning election as secretary of state and later as a senator. He is likable, telegenic, and a capable retail campaigner. But Heller is a late entrant into the race and must contend with as many as a half-dozen competitors in the primary, some of whom are claiming the pragmatic conservative space where he has long succeeded.

On that front, Clark county sheriff and Army veteran Joe Lombardo is his main competition.

“Heller is the Hillary Clinton of this primary. Everyone knows him and has an opinion of him, so he has little room to grow,” a Lombardo supporter argued. “Even though he starts out with nearly universal primary name ID, the math is far more difficult for Heller than for any other candidate in the race.”

From the Right, Heller’s primary competition will accuse him of being disloyal to Trump, a message that could drive votes away from the former senator in a state where the GOP base is particularly supportive of the 45th president. Heller began the 2016 GOP presidential primary opposed to Trump but eventually embraced him and complimented his leadership. Trump returned the favor, endorsing Heller for reelection in 2018.

“I don’t think he has a Trump problem,” a Heller supporter said, conceding that Heller and Trump had their differences on occasion but that overall they saw eye to eye — especially on the issues that matter. “Heller was on board with America First agenda and still is. He voted for Trump.”

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However, it’s unclear if Trump agrees with that assessment or how Republican voters in Nevada would react if the former president issues a scathing statement denouncing Heller’s gubernatorial bid.

Meanwhile, Trump has already endorsed Laxalt, who is expected to cruise to victory in his primary.

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