The National Climate Assessment released by the Trump administration last week underscores something the Pentagon has been saying for more than a decade: Climate change poses significant national security risks, everything from rising sea levels that threaten to inundate U.S. military bases, to droughts, floods, and other extreme weather that can spark wars over scare resources, such as food and water.
The report, which is mandated by Congress, concludes, “Climate change, variability, and extreme events, in conjunction with other factors, can exacerbate conflict,” and notes that climate change is already affecting U.S. military infrastructure by damaging roads, runways, and waterfront infrastructure.
The comprehensive report is based on 1,000 previous research studies and was issued by 13 separate federal agencies to underscore a threat that was part of the official National Defense Strategy for 10 years — until it was excised from the document under President Trump.
In 2008, the Pentagon strategy stated that, “Over the next twenty years physical pressures — population, resource, energy, climatic and environmental — could combine with rapid social, cultural, technological and geopolitical change to create greater uncertainty,” and concluded that “changes with existing and future resource, environmental, and climate pressures may generate new security challenges.”
The current NDS makes no mention of climate or the environment.
But the report devotes an entire chapter to the effect of climate change on U.S. International Interests.
“Droughts, floods, storm surges, wildfires, and other extreme events stress nations and people through loss of life, displacement of populations, and impacts on livelihoods,” the authors write.
“Increases in the frequency and severity of such events, as well as other aspects of climate change, may require a larger military mission focus on climate-sensitive areas such as coasts, drought-prone areas, and the Arctic.”
While noting “direct linkages between climate-related stress and conflict are unclear,” the report concludes that climate variability can foster conflict by increasing resource competition, commodity price shocks, and food insecurity.
For example, it cites the worldwide droughts in 2010, which contributed to a doubling of global wheat prices in 2011 and a tripling of bread prices in Egypt.
“This and other factors, including national trade policy and poverty, contributed to the civil unrest that ultimately resulted in the 2011 Egyptian revolution,” the report said.
“The biggest national security takeaway from this report is that concerns about climate change from the military and intelligence community have increased during this administration, rather than decreased. That’s simply because of facts on the ground,” said Caitlin Werrrell, Co-Founder of the Center for Climate and Security.
“These changes are already significantly impacting military bases and personnel, and the operating environment abroad. It’s time for policymakers to heed these warnings from our military and intelligence professionals, and do something about this threat,” she said.
While the Trump administration has not stressed the threat of climate change to national security, the Pentagon has continued to make it a priority, the report notes.
“There are many examples of DoD’s planning and action for risks to its assets from climate change,” the report said.
“DoD has performed a comprehensive scenario-driven examination of climate risks from sea level rise to all of its coastal military sites,” it said noting that in the Arctic, the Coast Guard and Navy are “pursuing strategies to respond to the changing geopolitical significance resulting from the projected absence of summer sea ice in the next few decades.”
