For those of us waiting for a worthwhile poll on the Republican race in South Carolina, the twenty-four hours after Michigan were frustrating. The only pollsters to release numbers were ARG and Zogby, and their efforts typically bear only a coincidental resemblance to reality. Finally, as the Campaign Standard first reported, Rasmussen pulled a smoking batch of fresh South Carolina numbers from the oven a couple of hours ago. The findings are pretty interesting. McCain and Huckabee are tied at 24%, while Romney checks in at a surprisingly competitive 18%. Fred pulls 16%, while Rudy is once again staring up at Ron Paul, drawing a whopping 3% of the vote. Rasmussen conducted the polling the night after Romney’s win in Michigan, so he may be seeing a Michigan bounce. Then again, politicians don’t simply bounce anymore; prior results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Romney is probably doing better than one would expect because he finally appears comfortable with his own message and style, and the voters are responding accordingly. According to the Ramsussen write-up:
Those data points suggest Romney may be blowing a huge opportunity by giving up on the Palmetto State. Our in-house Cardinal this morning questioned the wisdom of Romney surrendering in South Carolina and opting to roll the dice in Nevada instead. I’ll second Richelieu’s Saturday night quarterbacking. With a second place finish in South Carolina, Romney could have finished off McCain or Huckabee, whoever came in third. Given the suddenly sure-footed nature of the Romney campaign, a strong showing, perhaps even a surprise victory, was within reach. Additionally, the recent prominence of the economy plays to Romney’s strengths, and gave him a real chance of inflicting some serious damage to McCain. Instead, the Romney campaign has decided it can live with a potential 4th place finish in South Carolina, assuming it has a win in Nevada to brag about. The thinking in Romney headquarters isn’t altogether wrongheaded. Pretty much regardless of what happens on Saturday, Romney will live to fight another day. His only serious risk is that either McCain or Huckabee strings together back-to-back impressive victories in South Carolina and Florida. That’s unlikely, and even if it happens, it won’t guarantee the two-time victor a cakewalk on February 5. But Romney’s decision to shore up Nevada and not compete the last 48 hours in South Carolina looks a lot like “playing not to lose” rather than playing to win. The Rasmussen numbers suggest that Romney had the opportunity to do something pretty big in South Carolina. Instead, the campaign has opted to play it safe when a bolder course might have earned a massive reward.
