The results of Tuesday’s election illustrated the political divide on either side of the Potomac River, as Republicans defeated three incumbent Virginia congressmen while most Democrats in Maryland coasted to re-election.
Old Dominion voters ousted three incumbent Democrats, two of whom — Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye — were elected during the 2008 wave led by President Obama. Perriello and Nye were long expected to face tough races, but House of Delegates Majority Leader Morgan Griffith’s win over longtime incumbent Rick Boucher in the state’s southwestern 9th District was “the biggest surprise of the evening,” said longtime Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth.
Democratic Rep. Gerald Connolly was also locked in a tight rematch with Republican businessman Keith Fimian in Northern Virginia’s 11th District, with Connolly continuing to maintain a slight edge.
But in Maryland, Democrats won six of the state’s eight congressional districts, and Gov. Martin O’Malley trounced his Republican rival, former Gov. Bob Ehrlich, by 14 points. Sen. Barbara Mikulski carried more than 60 percent of votes in a statewide race that was never in doubt.
In one bright spot for Republicans, state Sen. Andy Harris defeated Democratic incumbent Rep. Frank Kratovil in Maryland’s 1st District that includes the Eastern Shore.
Holsworth said the Old Dominion has been more politically conservative than Maryland for some time, but that it has actually reflected national political trends the past several years. Obama, for example, carried Virginia by about the same margin as he did nationwide in 2008.
“It just seems that Virginia is a more bellwether state than Maryland,” he said.
He also cited the 2009 election of Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell as a precursor to the 2010 midterms.
“It was a lesson that the Democrats, for a variety of reasons, chose to ignore,” he said. “The Democrats essentially made no adjustments based on 2009.”
Party registration heavily tilts toward Democrats in Maryland, while in Virginia, there is no formal party registration for voters, allowing them to more easily shift across party lines in certain elections, said George Mason University’s Mark Rozell.
Rozell cautioned not to read too much from the results of one election cycle, especially this year’s. “[Virginia] is and has been for a long time … a competitive two-party state,” he said.
