Ukraine is bending but not breaking as it considers what terms would be acceptable in a peace accord with Russia. One line Ukraine refuses to draw is conceding it cannot join the European Union.
Days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he accepted that his country was not going to be allowed to join NATO, an official stated in clear terms that Ukraine will not accept being blocked out of all Western alliances.
“I will be categorical, this is absolutely unacceptable,” Zelensky’s deputy chief of staff, Andrii Sybiha, said on Friday. “It is our choice. The application for EU membership has been submitted, and now, it is being put into practice.”
Sybiha was responding to Russia’s proposal of a peace agreement that would render Ukraine politically neutral. Under the terms of the agreement, Ukraine would still have a military but would not be allowed to enter into any kind of military alliance. The country would also not be allowed to host Western military bases.
Russia floated the neutrality agreement as part of a 15-point plan.
Sweden, another neutral country, appears to be preparing to shift away from its historical status. A day before Russia suggested neutrality as an option, Sweden and Finland suggested they were considering applying to join NATO.
ZELENSKY ‘REALIZED’ UKRAINE CANNOT JOIN NATO
Unlike NATO, the EU does not have a military alliance among member countries that requires a response if one member is attacked. However, it does have a Common Security and Defense Policy that was established in 2017, which gives it some leeway to intervene in conflicts.
The EU has been clear that it is not going to fast-track Ukraine’s application for membership, but it has not ruled out the possibility of accepting it into the union. Besides Ukraine, the EU is also considering applications from Georgia and Moldova, two other former Soviet states seeking political protection from Russia’s adventurism in Eastern Europe.
While Ukraine is not an EU member, the alliance has not left the country under siege without support. EU states have inflicted punishing sanctions on Russia and its vassal state Belarus.
Several rounds of peace negotiations have started and sputtered as Russia continues to attack civilian infrastructure and request huge concessions from Ukraine. Officials have said the talks are becoming “more realistic,” but few people believe Vladimir Putin is serious about ending the war at the negotiating table.
Academics Arvid Bell and Dana Wolf, writing at Harvard’s Russia Matters site, laid out an analysis of the likelihood of peace talks achieving their goals. The authors concluded the probability of a ceasefire agreement is “very unlikely” but not at the “almost no chance” level.
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Russia’s negotiating tactics and its attempts to cloak its invasion may have soured Ukrainian officials on any chance of striking a deal that doesn’t offer their country a clear advantage.
“There’s a likelihood this is trickery and illusion. They lie about everything — Crimea, the build-up of troops on the border, and the ‘hysteria’ over the invasion,” a Ukrainian source briefed on the peace talks told the Financial Times. “We need to put pressure on them until they have no other choice.”
