Campaign prognosticators are already drawing maps saying that Republicans are on a path to lose the White House in the November election, and say Hillary Clinton is expected to defeat Donald Trump by about the same margin that President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012.
The 2012 matchup surprised Romney’s team, who thought they had a shot at defeating Obama, but instead lost 332-206 electoral college votes.
Source: CNN
Based on current surveys, several polling organizations say they can project that Trump is already down by more than 100 electoral votes. The Cook Political Report, for example, has Clinton leading 304-190, with 44 electoral college votes up for grabs.
Those undecided votes reflect polls that are too close to call in Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio. Of those states, Romney only won North Carolina.
Source: Cook Political Report
If Clinton and Trump split those remaining delegates evenly, Trump would lose 326-202, about the same result Romney got four years ago.
Several other politics watchers put the race at about the same margin this week, based on current polls. But even Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report admitted that this election cycle has been hard to predict, and that he is one of many who didn’t think Trump would win the GOP nomination.
“The thing that I never thought would happen is really happening,” Cook wrote Tuesday. “The idea that the Republican Party would nominate Donald Trump — reality TV star, real estate developer, and all-around showboat — seemed ridiculous and, as I kept saying, inconceivable.”
