Russian President Vladimir Putin’s surprise decision on Wednesday to replace his current prime minister, Mikhail Fradkov, with a loyal and low-profile ally, Victor Zubkov, has fueled intense speculation in the German media. Commentators wonder what the former KGB spy is really up to when it comes to sorting out his own political future, which, in principle, will come to a temporary end in March 2008. As the centrist weekly Die Zeit put it, the latest power shuffle in Moscow creates, in essence, “an amusing guessing game for political scientists.” The fact that Victor Zubkov hinted yesterday that he might run for president (“If I achieve something in the post of premier, then it’s not excluded that this could happen”) has bolstered those analyst who believe that the man who will turn 66 tomorrow could briefly serve as Russia’s head of state next year before turning the top job back to 54-year-old Vladimir Putin; a rather creative solution that allows the current president to circumvent the existing constitutional two-term limit. It is a testimony to Russia’s resurgence and growing international clout–driven not only by record-high commodity and energy prices but also by the perception of a corresponding decline in U.S. power, influence, and prestige–that Moscow’s behind-the-scenes power politics are now commanding much more interest around the world than during the previous surprise power shake-up on December 31, 1999, when ailing Russian leader Boris Yeltsin resigned abruptly during the Christmas holidays to appoint Vladimir Putin as acting president. At this point, it is likely only Vladimir Putin himself knows who will be in charge of Russia beyond March 2008. Riding on domestic approval ratings in the 70-percent-range, and with virtually no political opposition at home, Putin is in a unique situation to leave his stamp on Russian foreign and domestic policy for years to come.
