Democrats worry 2022 won’t be merry and bright for Biden or the party

Published January 1, 2022 11:30am ET



Some Democrats are not optimistic that 2022 will bring President Joe Biden or the party good tidings of great joy before the midterm elections.

Democrats control the Senate thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. But the White House and congressional leadership’s inability to earn Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona’s support for Biden’s sprawling $2.4 trillion social welfare and climate spending bill or a filibuster carve-out for voting rights legislation suggest the administration will struggle to turn many of Biden’s priorities into law next year as it has in 2021.

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The 2022 elections will likely be “a f****** disaster” for Democrats, which is “bad” for Biden and the country, according to party strategist Stefan Hankin.

Citing the COVID-19 pandemic and the pressure it has put on the country’s healthcare system, economy, and schools to the lack of progress on gun control, Hankin said the public needed “a strong, centralist government that’s working together, moving forward to get things done.”

“We have exactly the opposite,” he told the Washington Examiner. “We have a dysfunctional Democratic Party because, God, we’re the f****** worst and can’t message our way out of a paper bag and, clearly, can’t actually govern as a coalition party. So, where do we go from here? I’m not feeling overly solid.”

Hankin was more upset with Manchin for questioning his place in Democratic politics when the Republican Party remains in former President Donald Trump’s grip than he was with Manchin for “dragging” out negotiations over social welfare and climate proposals with which he is fundamentally opposed.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has indicated his chamber will consider the Build Back Better legislation in 2022, heeding liberal Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’s calls for a show vote destined to fail. Tensions have eased between Manchin and the White House after the senator dramatically announced he would not back the framework during a Sunday morning Fox News TV interview. But since then, he has repeated his concerns about inflation, the national debt, and higher taxes.

Hankin also queried other liberal Democrats, such as New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for urging Biden to advance his policies through executive action. That unilateral option “only gets you so far” and is simply “window dressing,” he said.

Instead, Biden should refocus on COVID-19’s health and economic fallout to mitigate expected Democrat electoral losses in 2022, according to party strategist Simon Rosenberg. The “fate” of Democrats in the midterm cycle depends on how voters perceive their lives as they enter the pandemic’s third year after Biden was distracted by his Build Back Better agenda and Afghanistan, he contended.

“If we get credit for that, I think the elections will be competitive and Biden will be seen as a successful president,” Rosenberg said. “If we don’t get credit for that, I think it’s gonna be a very tough year for the president.”

“That’s his greatest priority and a lot of the other things, including reviving BBB or what happens with a Supreme Court justice, are of secondary importance,” he added.

For Rosenberg, Biden ought to appear more empathetic to COVID-19 worries, similar to what he demonstrated in Kentucky after a tornado tore through the commonwealth, claiming at least 58 victims.

“People have to feel that he’s done everything within his power, that he has made this his central obsession, that he understands the struggle,” he said. “He has the opportunity to reground his presidency in the thing that got him elected, which was making sure we get through COVID and we secure the economic recovery.”

The COVID-19 economic piece can be expanded to include Biden’s enhanced child tax credit, Obamacare, and climate measures, Rosenberg asserted.

“Those three things are going to be, I think, front and center to the Democratic agenda in 2022, along with issues around voting reform and protecting our democracy,” he said. “The Republicans are going to be a hard sell to midterm voters next year. It doesn’t mean they don’t win, but it also means that they’re going to be a hard sell.”

If Rosenberg is correct, Biden has to drastically improve his standing before November. The public is currently split on his COVID-19 response, with an average approval rating of net negative 0.1 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics. That compares to his handling of the economy’s average approval of net negative 15 points and his overall average job approval of net negative 9 points.

Biden has tried to relate to voters’ COVID-19 irritation and exasperation, testing Rosenberg’s hypothesis that words matter.

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“I know you’re tired — I really mean this — and I know you’re frustrated. We all want this to be over. But we’re still in it, and this is a critical moment,” Biden said in late December. “We also have more tools than we’ve ever had before. We’re ready. We’ll get through this.”