Pat Buchanan and Michael Kinsley had some epic confrontations as TV pundits, but there are apparently some issues they agree on: like Canada, the US’s northern neighbor. Kinsley once proclaimed “Worthwhile Canadian Initiative” to be the most boring newspaper headline possible, while Buchanan has said that “for most Americans, Canada is sort of like a case of latent arthritis. We really don’t think about it unless it acts up.” (Ouch, Pat!)
But hold on – this year, the Canadian political scene is anything but boring.
On May 2nd, Canadians will vote in their fourth national election in seven years. The country, which is run on a British-style parliamentary system, has only recently started experimenting with fixed election dates.
The ruling Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper, is hoping to hold on to power and beat off its center-left Liberal Party and far-left New Democratic Party challengers. The Bloc Quebecois, a French-Canadian separatist-nationalist party, is also active – but not a national contender. (I should share that I worked as a staffer in the Conservative government for 16 months.)
While the Conservatives have won the last two elections, they have been unable to take a majority of the 308 seats in Canada’s Parliament (equivalent of the US Congress). This has made their minority government, at times, a shaky proposition.
A national poll released Thursday shows Conservative support at 36.6 per cent, the New Democrats at 30.4 per cent, the Liberal Party at 21.9 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 6 per cent. If this trend holds until election day, it will be a shocking result for the Liberals, who once regularly enjoyed majority support across the country as if it was the natural order of things.
Don’t count out the Liberals just yet, though – the Liberal Party governed Canada for about 70 years during the 20th century, and has recovered from previous electoral “near death” experiences.
What’s at stake in this latest Canadian election for the US? The outcome of the election for border security is probably the top issue to watch, from a strict national interest/national security view. The two countries share a 5,525 mile-long boundary that, in an age of global terrorism and global criminal gangs, needs careful attention.
One American expert on US-Canadian ties is hopeful that, whatever the result, the outcome of the election will pave the way for further cooperation between the two countries on a host of important issues.
“The US has had a very productive relationship with [Prime Minister Stephen] Harper’s government,” says Dr. Christopher Sands, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC. Dr. Sands recently spoke with Examiner Opinion Zone about the election. His work focuses on Canada and US-Canadian relations, as well as North American economic integration.
For example, he says, “in February, the US and Canada signaled a mutual intention to explore the idea of making the US-Canada border a ‘best practice’ border. This includes studying the joint use of a high-tech passport entry-exit system (very similar to what the US already has at its land crossings). Further bilateral negotiation is necessary before such a system could be implemented, of course. If Canada would agree to it, such an approach would help increase border security for both nations.”
There isn’t an active anti-American political party in Canada, Dr. Sands notes, so it’s not likely a change in government will have a big impact on US-Canada relations. “But if there’s a change in government, it would helpful if the new Canadian government [respected the intention to study] the entry-exit program at the border,” he says.
Dr Sands adds: “In any case, one consequence of the election could be that we see a majority government take power in Canada. A majority government would be able to make bigger commitments to the US regarding the border and other issues, and would thus make for a better partner for Washington.”
(From my perspective, at the top of the list as far as other issues goes is the need to further US-Canada cooperation to keep North America’s manufacturing sector strong. It is the surest engine of economic recovery for both countries.)
A majority government, whatever the stripe, wouldn’t just make for a more stable negotiating partner for the US. It would spare Canadians, at least for a few years, another trip to the polls. It remains to be seen how heavily that issue will weigh on voters’ minds. We’ll know more when the returns come in on May 2nd.
