With attention focused on Iowa today, we find these new polls on Republicans in New Hampshire. If there was any question the GOP race was wide open, this should answer it, not because of who is leading, but because of who is in second place. The new poll from Suffolk University shows a “surging” John McCain, at 19 percent, closing the gap with New Hampshire frontrunner Mitt Romney. McCain is up six since the Suffolk poll in November and Romney is down three points. Mike Huckabee is up three points, from 7 percent in November to 10 percent now. Here is the analysis from Suffolk University polling director David Paleologos, complete with ridiculous baseball analogies: “With Curt Schilling pitching and ‘The Manchester Union Leader’ going to bat for him, John McCain is coming off the injured list and may well see action in the games that follow New Hampshire.” Said Paleologos: “McCain’s comeback and Huckabee’s rise from bench warmer to slugger come at the expense of Romney and Giuliani.” The question is: What happens to these numbers if Huckabee wins Iowa? Surely he will get a bump, but how much will a loss in Iowa – where he has been campaigning hard for many months – hurt Romney? Does he maintain his lead in New Hampshire or does he begin to bleed support? And if it’s the latter, where does that support go? To Huckabee? To Giuliani? Or, as seems most likely, to a surging John McCain?
