A tropical system could form in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week, a spark of activity in what has so far been a sleepy Atlantic hurricane season.
One day after first acknowledging an area of low pressure over the southeastern United States, the National Hurricane Center raised expectations Sunday evening in a forecast that said there is a 60% of formation over the next five days.
“A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few days,” the latest National Hurricane Center outlook said. “Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.”
A tropical depression could form over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. This system could also produce heavy rainfall along portions of the central and eastern US Gulf Coast. For more info go to https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB. Local info at: https://t.co/SiZo8ohZMN pic.twitter.com/D4r1dVu05k
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 7, 2019
Forecasts show tropical downpours, strong winds, and flooding could by midweek hit a span of the coastal southeast U.S. stretching from New Orleans to Tampa, Fla. There is no indicated that this disturbance is expected to reach hurricane strength — a tropical cyclone with sustained maximum winds of at least 74 mph.
Weather.us meteorologist Ryan Maue said in a tweet that there remains lots of uncertainty in the forecast, but noted the highly regarded European model shows a track into Louisiana next weekend. “However, be on alert along entire northern Gulf coast,” he said. “Main threat: Heavy rain.”
Uncertain about track of likely tropical storm to develop in Gulf of Mexico mid-week.
From the “Euro model”
Low pressure forms in in the north-central Gulf by Thursday w/track into Louisiana. However, be on alert along entire northern Gulf coast.Main threat: Heavy rain pic.twitter.com/7xysXANVcx
— Ryan (@RyanMaue) July 7, 2019
So far it has been a rather quiet Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began on June 1. There has only been one named storm so far, Andrea, which formed into an organized tropical system in May south of Bermuda and quickly petered out. If the area of low pressure currently centered over Georgia develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Barry.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which is the parent agency of National Hurricane Center, predicted in May that the Atlantic hurricane season would be near-normal in 2019. They also predicted there would likely be between nine and 15 named storms with winds of 39 mph or higher, four to eight that could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or higher, and two to four major hurricanes that are Category 3, 4, or 5 storms with winds of 111 mph or higher.
The outlook reflected two “competing climate factors” this year. “The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. Countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity,” the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
In the Pacific Ocean, there has been a little more activity with three named storms, including Barbara, which had been a powerful Category 4 hurricane but has dissipated and is expected to bring some heavy rain, strong winds, and high surf to Hawaii in the coming days. Also out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean is Tropical Storm Cosme, which is quickly falling apart.
