Months ago, Northern Virginia’s 11th District looked liked secure Democratic turf in the face of a national Republican onslaught.
But since then, the national mood has soured, campaign cash has poured in and incumbent Rep. Gerry Connolly, a freshman Democrat, now faces the very real possibility of being ousted by his Republican challenger, Oakton businessman Keith Fimian, the same man Connolly easily beat for the seat just two years ago.
Connolly’s situation is emblematic of problems that Democratic incumbents across the country face this year, as voters vent their anti-incumbent anger against the party in power. Political analysts who earlier this year were predicting Republican gains of 30 or more House seats now say the GOP could pick up twice as many as that and is most certainly going to gain control of the House in Tuesday’s election.
Cash is still flooding in to both sides of the Connolly-Fimian race as Election Day nears. Just last week, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee dropped $1 million into the race to bolster Connolly, while the conservative American Action Forum spent a comparable sum for an ad campaign to help Fimian.
“I definitely think it’s closer than anyone had expected a year ago,” said Fairfax County Supervisor Jeff McKay, D-Lee.
Connolly has tried to establish his credentials as independent-minded, reminding voters that he opposed some Democratic spending bills while supporting the Bush-era tax cuts. But more recently, Connolly brought up Fimian’s positions on gun control and abortion to portray the Republican as too extreme for Northern Virginia.
Fimian, meanwhile, has attacked Connolly for supporting President Obama’s agenda, including his voters for an economic stimulus package, health care reforms and a climate-change bill.
Connolly was never considered one of the highly vulnerable incumbents until this year’s shift in the national political landscape, said George Mason University’s Mark Rozell.
“This was a seat the Democrats expected to hold as soon as Tom Davis retired,” said Rozell, referring to the moderate Republican who represented the district between 1995 and 2008. “Very few people were expecting that Connolly would have a strong challenge in his first race for re-election.”
Indeed, in the Republican primary earlier this year, when Fimian faced Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, Herrity billed himself as the only one who could beat Connolly, touting his record as a conservative leader on the board and his strong showing when he was first elected in 2007. But Fimian’s strong performance in Prince William County, a conservative stronghold in the district, propelled him over Herrity and into a rematch with Connolly, who beat him by 12 points in 2008.
“I think the 11th District race in particular is going to come down to the wire,” said McKay, the Fairfax supervisor. “It’s going to be something to watch.”
