If Troy Balderson’s slim margin in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District holds up, Republicans will have prevailed in all but one of the seriously contested special elections for the House that have taken place since President Trump has been in office.
“The Republicans have now won 8 out of 9 House Seats, yet if you listen to the Fake News Media you would think we are being clobbered,” Trump tweeted on Wednesday. The president was continuing a victory lap that began when all the candidates he endorsed in several Republican primaries and the Ohio special election appeared to have won.
“If I find the time [to campaign for more GOP candidates], in between China, Iran, the Economy and much more, which I must, we will have a giant Red Wave!” Trump enthused.
[More: Trump campaign touts president’s support as ‘deciding factor’ in Troy Balderson’s apparent victory]
Yet virtually no other reputable political observer sees a red wave coming. If anything, the Democrats’ prospects in the midterm elections have improved in recent weeks even as Trump’s job approval rating — still underwater nationally — appears to have stabilized in the 40s.
Why the disconnect? Consider that even as Republicans have won these special elections, they have often underperformed in them. The suburban voters Democrats hope to win over in November have in fact voted Democratic, just not by enough to overcome the overall red tilt of these districts.
Nevertheless, Ohio 12 is a district former Reps. Pat Tiberi and John Kasich have won handily. Trump even carried it by 11 points. Balderson, a solid and not especially controversial candidate, is ahead by about 0.9 points with provisional ballots pending and could still face a recount.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 60 Republican-held House seats as “genuinely” in play. Democrats need only to net 23 to capture the majority. Hillary Clinton won that many GOP districts in 2016.
More importantly, 42 of those 60 seats went to Trump by smaller margins than did Ohio 12. Forty-seven are less Republican-leaning. And unlike in a special election, Republicans will not be able to pour resources and arrange a presidential visit to them all.
Of course, in some cases a Trump visit would be the problem. He has reduced the GOP’s margin for error by being so toxic with affluent, college-educated suburban voters who have been inclined to vote for the party in the past, especially women. He has to some extent balanced that with his strong appeal to working-class whites. But it is not clear a.) that these will be the voters who matter most in the districts that will decide the House majority this fall and b.) that these voters will turn out in the same force without Trump himself on the ballot.
Democrats lost the midterm elections in 2010 and 2014 despite President Barack Obama winning two terms because Republicans were energized in the off years while Obama’s difference-making voters didn’t turn out when he wasn’t on the ballot. This could be an issue with Trump too.
A Trump-friendly GOP strategist told the Washington Examiner that Republicans have a “math problem” in the House. They are playing defense over vast swathes of territory while they have little real offense. When asked how many legitimate pickup opportunities have in the House, the strategist replied, “Maybe five.”
The Senate is a different story, with a favorable map and 10 Democrats running for re-election in states Trump won. In at least half of those states, a Trump campaign visit is still an asset. Still, Republicans are leading in the RealClearPolitics polling average in just two of the top races for Democratic-held seats, both by less than 2 points. Democrats are ahead still in West Virginia, Montana and Tennessee — all states where Trump remains popular.
Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, has an average lead of 15.4 points in a state Trump won comfortably. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., is up 16 in a state Trump won more narrowly. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is ahead by 6.5 in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
The statistic about House special elections also obscures some other important races Republicans have lost. The Virginia governor’s race wasn’t close. Democrats won a Senate seat in Alabama, where Trump won by nearly 28 points, and their one major House pickup came in a district Trump had taken by 20 points. Add to that a longtime GOP-held state legislative district going Democratic here and a multi-term Republican governor like Wisconsin’s Scott Walker trailing in public polls there and the warning signs become more obvious.
Republicans’ Election Day wins certainly beat Democratic moral victories. But if anyone in the party is “tired of winning,” they could get some well deserved rest after November.
