President Trump isn’t going away after Jan. 20 even if all his election challenges fail and Joe Biden is sworn in as the 46th president.
That’s the conclusion of Republican operatives, who expect Trump to continue wielding his Twitter megaphone at a minimum and at least to consider a 2024 presidential campaign. They are more split on the question of what effect this will have on the party.
“He will cast a shadow over all the candidates who could succeed him,” said a Republican strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns. “It will be huge.”
To many Republicans, it depends on how Trump chooses to exercise his influence over the party and the direction of the country. He could start a media company to rival Fox News, a network that has displeased him with its coverage of the election. “Trump TV” rumors have been persistent for the last five years. He could launch a super PAC to promote Republican candidates who share his views on foreign policy, trade, and immigration. Or he could continue his campaign for the presidency because he is still eligible to serve another term under the 22nd Amendment of the Constitution.
“Trump has a whole family he can have on the show,” a Republican fundraiser said. “Don Jr., Kimberly [Guilfoyle], Eric, Lara.”
Ivanka Trump and her husband, Jared Kushner, though less conservative, have all also assumed large roles in both the Trump campaigns and the White House. Trump’s allies seem poised to retain control of the Republican National Committee.
A Washington Examiner/YouGov poll found that 48% of voters wanted Trump to leave politics entirely if he lost, but 38% of Republicans said he should run again, and 34% believed he should back like-minded candidates. Just 9% of Republicans thought he should abandon politics completely.
Even if Trump does not run again, the threat of another campaign could keep him in the public eye and help generate attention for whatever project comes next. Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor who was the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee, did this in the run-up to the 2012 presidential race. Trump has done it before, too, teasing multiple presidential runs before actually declaring a candidacy in June 2015. “He was the boy who cried wolf,” the fundraiser said.
Like Hillary Clinton and Al Gore, Trump’s connection with his most loyal supporters will only be enhanced by feelings that the election was somehow stolen from him or illegitimate. Clinton has regularly promoted maximalist theories about collusion between the Russians and Trump’s campaign to fix the 2016 election. Gore was convinced he won Florida and said in his concession speech that he believed the Bush v. Gore ruling that ended the 37-day stalemate was wrongly decided.
Richard Nixon returned to win the presidency eight years after a close, disputed loss to John F. Kennedy in 1960. Nixon chose not to contest the election and heeded the advice of party stalwarts, who suggested he concede.
Former presidents tend to take a lower profile after leaving office, especially for the first few years. This is even truer of Republicans. While Democratic Presidents Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, and Jimmy Carter have remained to varying degrees active in partisan politics, President George W. Bush and his father, President George H.W. Bush, have only sporadically commented on public affairs since leaving the White House. Nixon sought to reestablish himself as an elder statesman.
President Ronald Reagan was only active for five years after the presidency due to his 1994 Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis. He gave speeches, including a 1992 Republican National Convention address, and campaigned occasionally for GOP candidates, including George H.W. Bush’s reelection bid. Reagan met with Clinton after the election and wrote an op-ed in the New York Times opposing the Democrat’s 1993 tax increase.
Trump is expected to be more vocal.
“He could be the kingmaker, and every 2024 candidate could have to go to Trump Tower to kiss the ring,” said a Republican consultant who worked on congressional races this year.
“Politics has become entertainment and reality TV,” the fundraiser said. “Is there going to be a Republican brand and a Trump Republican brand?”
Many Republicans are hoping to succeed Trump in 2024. This likely includes Vice President Mike Pence, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, and Sens. Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, and Josh Hawley, who have all in different ways attempted to channel Trump’s populism.
These Republicans are skeptical of Trump’s legal chances to remain in the White House next year.
“Even if Georgia goes to Trump, it’s not going to change the results,” a veteran GOP operative said. “When Arizona flipped, it was over.”
But GOP insiders do think Trump will continue to have a role to play as someone who energized the base and expanded the electoral map to include the Rust Belt, even if Republicans in Washington may be eager to move on.
“I don’t know what will happen, but I could see the small donors flocking to whatever he decides to do next,” the GOP fundraiser said.
