FAIRFIELD, Iowa — Tom Steyer hasn’t cracked 5% in any reputable Iowa poll, but rival 2020 Democratic campaigns are concerned about his chances in Monday’s caucuses.
The Washington Examiner spoke with two senior Steyer campaign officials Wednesday evening who said they’ve been approached by aides to opposing candidates interested in coordinating a caucuses strategy should the California businessman fail to win 15% support in an individual precinct — the minimum level needed to continue on to the next round of voting.
Under Iowa caucuses rules, supporters of one candidate can switch to another in the second phase of voting should their initial choice not meet the minimum levels of support.
“We haven’t made any deals with anybody, but we’ve been approached my multiple campaigns,” a Steyer aide said. “We don’t have to make those decisions yet, considering the trajectory of our numbers.”
Despite the coy language of his staffers, Steyer did tell a woman who attended a town hall on Wednesday evening that if she was concerned about what to do during the second round of voting, a staffer would instruct her on who to support.
The likelihood that Steyer’s campaign will try to strategically assist another candidate on caucus day remains high. A RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Steyer’s support at 3.2%, although his campaign says internal numbers indicate a last-minute surge of support. Steyer has shown no indication of dropping out after a poor finish in Iowa, meaning he has an incentive to weaken who he believes are tougher competitors. As a billionaire former hedge fund manager, Steyer has the resources to stay in the race for some time.
Steyer’s message of liberal capitalism and environmentalism occupies an awkward ideological position within the primary. Needing to keep the left flank of the party fractured, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is an obvious target. Hobbling Warren’s candidacy would give Steyer and opening to take on socialist Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders directly.
Former Vice President Joe Biden figures to be another target if Steyer throws his caucuses support to another candidate. Polling has also shown Steyer with relatively high minority support relative to most of the field, though well behind Biden. Steyer would have to gain on the 36-year Delaware senator in South Carolina, where the black vote dominates. In an attempt to cut Biden’s delegates, Steyer’s campaign could benefit from a strong finish by the moderate Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
Other campaigns are already in the process of working out a caucus-day truce. On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that Biden is considering a deal with Klobuchar to direct supporters to caucus for the Minnesota senator in precincts where he does not garner 15%. In return, Klobuchar’s supporters would do the same in other precincts.
Klobuchar’s campaign said they were not open to such a deal at the time.
Such arrangements are not uncommon. In 2004, Dennis Kucinich and John Edwards agreed to team up in order to stop John Kerry, the ultimate winner of that cycle’s caucuses.
[Also read: Sanders campaign predicting victory in Iowa caucuses]
