President Joe Biden’s response to the Russia-Ukraine war has boosted his popularity, yet pollsters warn that the reprieve may be brief before November’s midterm elections.
The bloody conflict between Russia and Ukraine, half a world away, has created “a short-term bottom” for public opinion of Biden, according to Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos.
“Prior to the State of the Union address, approval ratings in the high 30s were a regular occurrence,” the Suffolk University Political Research Center director told the Washington Examiner. “Since the State of the Union, Biden’s approval has settled into the low to mid-40s, suggesting a short-term bump.”
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“World events” were having a “positive impact” on Biden’s public standing, Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray agreed.
“But it also means we are in a period of significant instability where it would be a fool’s errand to predict which way the wind blows next month, next week, or even tomorrow,” he said.
Rumors of Biden’s improving fortunes were started by a poll published last week that found the president’s approval had recovered 8 percentage points after the State of the Union to 47%. The NPR, PBS NewsHour, and Marist research found, too, that satisfaction over Biden’s handling of Russia and Ukraine had spiked 18 points to 52% thanks to Democrats and independents.
Yet less than a week later, a Quinnipiac University Poll painted a different picture. In a study released Monday, Quinnipiac found Biden’s overall approval was net negative 38% to 51%, only slightly better than negative 37% to 52% last month. Respondents were more evenly divided over Biden’s Russia-Ukraine approach, with 42% condoning to 45% who do not. The week before, 39% approved, while 47% disapproved.
On Feb. 24, the day Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden’s average approval was 41.5%, while his disapproval was 53.5%, according to RealClearPolitics. Thirteen days later, the percentage of people with favorable opinions of the president remains steady, while the proportion with unfavorable views has decreased slightly to 52.8%.
The White House acknowledged Monday that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may become more protracted than first anticipated as Ukrainian forces, girded by civilian conscripts, thwart the Kremlin’s advance toward Kyiv, the capital. Glimpses into the David vs. Goliath fight, including photos and footage of lifeless bodies beamed around the world, have galvanized an international coalition of support, though that aid has been hampered by European politics and bureaucracy.
At the same time, the longer the Russia-Ukraine war rages, the more political problems it could pose to Biden. For example, U.S. stock markets crashed Monday over gas price concerns as the economy and consumers already deal with record inflation.
Republicans have criticized Biden for not proactively combating escalating gas prices amid Russia-Ukraine tensions when the former supplies one-third of Europe’s fuel. And their complaints coincide with data compiled Monday that indicate the national average cost of gas is $4.104 a gallon, surpassing the previous record of $4.103 set in 2008.
“Energy prices were surging even before Putin invaded Ukraine, and Biden still hasn’t even called American energy producers,” Republican National Committee spokesman Tommy Pigott said Monday.
“After a year of anti-energy policies, Biden took credit for gas prices on Dec. 8, claiming he lowered them,” Pigott added earlier in the day. “Prices are up 70 cents a gallon since then.”
Republicans have particularly seized on reports that Biden is negotiating with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela to increase their oil production and decrease gas prices, adding to their scrutiny of the president for canceling the Keystone XL pipeline and banning certain drilling leases.
But White House press secretary Jen Psaki defended the Biden administration’s engagements with the regimes one by one before she contested the Republican argument that the federal government’s environmental priorities are hindering oil extraction.
“The U.S. produced more oil this past year than in President Trump’s first year,” she said Monday, “so I think you’re misidentifying what the actual issue is.”
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“There are 9,000 unused approved drilling permits,” Psaki continued, “so I would suggest you ask the oil companies why they’re not using those if there’s a desire to drill more.”
