The prognosis for the Republican Senate majority is dire, as well-funded Democratic challengers put red states in play and GOP incumbents feel dragged down by President Trump’s faltering reelection bid.
Senate Republicans are clinging to a three-seat majority. They are poised to pick up one Democratic-held seat in Alabama and threatening to flip another in Michigan. But it all starts to come apart from there. Incumbent Republicans are endangered in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina; on their heels in Georgia and Montana; and facing the prospect of major upsets in Alaska and South Carolina. Republicans could also lose an open-seat contest in ruby-red Kansas.
In Alaska, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina, where Trump is heavily favored over Democratic nominee Joe Biden, the Republicans’ problem is resources. Energized grassroots liberals have flooded Democratic challengers in those states with hundreds of millions of dollars in contributions. Republican candidates are completely outgunned. In Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, and Georgia, all presidential battlegrounds, the problem is money — and Trump.
The president’s standing versus Biden has suffered since the first televised debate and his bout with the coronavirus. The fallout is impacting Senate Republicans.
“Democrats are more likely than not going to win control of the Senate,” said Nathan Gonzales, publisher of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan prognosticator.
“It’s looking very grim for Republicans up and down the ballot,” added a GOP operative privy to the party’s private polling. “The spending is a massive problem, and the president’s numbers have plummeted since his disastrous first debate performance.”
The Republicans are defending a 53-seat majority in the Nov. 3 elections. Inside Elections is projecting Democratic Senate gains of three to five seats and leaning toward a Democratic takeover because of Biden’s strength versus Trump. If Biden wins, Kamala Harris as vice president would cast the deciding votes in case of a 50-50 tie.
The Cook Political Report is projecting Democratic Senate gains of up to seven seats. Some independent analysts on Wall Street are less bullish on Democrats winning the majority, skepticism shared by some Republican insiders.
For instance, in the special Senate election in Georgia, Republican insiders now expect Democrat Raphael Warnock to advance to a January runoff, with the remaining spot going to just one of two Republicans in the race: appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler or Rep. Doug Collins. But Matt Schlapp, a Trump ally and head of the American Conservative Union, rejects those predictions, even though they are based on internal GOP polling.
“Polling has [been] a mess for a few months,” Schlapp tweeted. “Trump is in a stronger position than is being described. And @RepDougCollins is in a much stronger leading position than some GA polls suggest. These Senate races will be shifting our way in the final 2 weeks. See you soon GA!”
The RealClearPolitics average of recent public opinion polls in Georgia shows Warnock receiving 29.7% of the vote, followed by Loeffler with 23.5%, and Collins with 21.7%. In the regularly scheduled Georgia Senate race, Republican Sen. David Perdue leads Democrat Jon Ossoff by an average of 2.8 percentage points. That race might also be headed for a runoff. Trump and Biden are statistically tied. The president heads to Georgia Friday to shore up support.
Veteran Republican operatives who have experienced political highs and lows are convinced Senate Republicans are headed for a crash landing. The unknown is how much damage they are going to absorb. The outcome could be merely “bad” like 2012, when the GOP lost two seats — or a “catastrophe” like 2008, when the party lost nine seats. Some Republicans say the majority could hinge on Michigan and North Carolina.
In Michigan, Republican John James is in striking distance of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. A win there would give the GOP an insurance policy. In North Carolina, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham was seemingly headed to victory over Republican Sen. Thom Tillis until he was tripped up by revelations that he has engaged in extramarital affairs. But Cunningham still leads Tillis in fresh polling.
“If we hold the majority, it will be because of two people: Cal Cunningham and John James,” said a Republican strategist who advises congressional candidates.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic.
They like their chances in the presidential battleground states and are high on races in Alaska, Kansas, and South Carolina. Democrats are encouraged partly because they believe Republicans waited too long to call in the cavalry to rescue GOP candidates in traditionally red states. In nearly every contest, Democrats are winning the candidate-to-candidate fundraising battle, with Democratic outside groups also throwing in more money than their Republican counterparts.
“The question is: How many seats past the four that we need do we grab?” a Democratic strategist working on Senate races said.
