With a new version of a “reduction in violence” agreement with the Taliban expected to be announced soon, the Pentagon is poised to begin long-planned force reductions in Afghanistan, once it’s clear the deal is working.
In remarks at the Atlantic Council Tuesday, White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien hinted that an agreement was near, saying, “Some good news could be forthcoming,” but also downplayed the idea that the United States would reduce its footprint in Afghanistan right away.
“I don’t think there’s any imminent withdrawal from Afghanistan,” O’Brien said. “There will have to be reduction in violence and meaningful inter-Afghan talks.”
Defense Secretary Mark Esper, in Brussels for a meeting with NATO defense ministers, has been saying for weeks that the United States has several thousand more troops in Afghanistan than it needs to carry out the twin missions of assisting the Afghan military and pursuing terrorist groups, including al Qaeda and the Islamic State.
The U.S. has between 12,000 and 13,000 troops in the country, and Gen. Scott Miller, the U.S. Afghanistan commander, has told Esper he could easily send at least 3,000 to 4,000 home.
“You’ve heard that 8,600 number out there, that’s one number that we’ve talked about,” Esper told reporters last month. “I’m confident we can go to that number and not affect our mission.”
In testimony before the Senate this week, retired Gen. Jack Keane, the former Army vice chief of staff, said he believed Esper and Miller were just waiting for the right time to announce the drawdown.
“Gen. Miller has been working on the force reduction for some time based on his assessment that he had more forces than he needed to meet the mission requirement,” Keane said. “And I believe that given the fact that negotiations were taking place, the administration made a logical decision not to unilaterally conduct that reduction and use that as leverage in the negotiations.”
“But if there’s not a settlement in those negotiations between the United States and the Taliban, I do think Secretary Esper is right, then we’re likely to announce that reduction anyway because Gen. Miller wants to get on with it,” Keane said. “He doesn’t want anybody to be in that country exposed unnecessarily to risk if he doesn’t need them to accomplish the mission.”
In Brussels on Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance strongly supported the peace process, but added, “[The] Taliban has to show and demonstrate a real willingness, a real willingness and that they are capable of delivering reduction in violence, and Taliban has also to understand that they will never win on the battlefield, they have to make real compromises around the negotiating table.”
Read more from our senior writer on defense and national security in today’s edition of Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense.
