Senate Republicans are feeling the midterm election crunch as expanding threats to their one-seat majority begin to stretch resources.
Previously safe Republican incumbents are under fire and presumably vulnerable Democratic incumbents are proving durable, chipping away at structural advantages that favor GOP control. The developments could leave pickup opportunities on the table as Republicans and allies concentrate resources on a core group of competitive red states.
“I think we as Republicans are stretched thinner than we should be given how advantageous of a map we have,” said Dan Eberhart, a GOP donor who is raising money for Rep. Kevin Cramer, the Republican challenging Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota.
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The Senate battleground, dominated by Democratic incumbents and 10 states President Trump won in 2016, is shielding Republicans from fierce headwinds poised to sweep the Democrats to power in the House on Nov. 6. But that buffer is straining, as midterm pressures that typically endanger the party that holds the White House bleed into Senate contests.
In Indiana and West Virginia, states that voted for Trump by wide margins, entrenched Democratic incumbents are turning out to be more difficult to dislodge than assumed. In Tennessee and Texas, usually safe, Republican-held strongholds, the Democratic nominees are in contention — and might win. In Arizona and Nevada, the GOP is working every bit as hard as predicted to hold endangered seats.
For party organizations and allied groups, that has meant preparing to spend more than previously planned on targeted races in which the Republican challenger is a legitimate threat to the Democratic incumbent. It has meant investing where originally few, if any, expenditures were allotted to defend the party’s position in GOP seats.
On that front, Texas is the problem.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is scrambling for contributions to keep pace with Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who is flush with cash, in what is a close race. Cruz’ fundraising could vacuum up money in Texas and nationally, resources that might have gone to challenging Democratic incumbents that could be vulnerable with enough GOP financing. Sources say the National Republican Senatorial Committee has even discussed, internally, the possibility of spending in Texas.
“If resources are stretched, then it is going to be tough to redirect them to a huge state with so many DMAs,” countered a Republican operative, who was skeptical the NRSC would spend in Texas, a large, expensive state with so many media markets, officially known as “designated market areas.”
Senate Republicans remain confident about holding their 51-49 majority, a feat party strategists believe rests on defending Tennessee, an open seat; and ousting Democratic incumbents in three strong Trump states: Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota. That optimism, fueled as well by GOP prospects in Florida, relies on Texas playing to type and sticking with Cruz.
But some GOP insiders complain the party could do so much more damage if it had enough money spread to races in other states, some where the Republican nominees are appealing, such as Michigan and Minnesota; some, like Montana, where the Democratic incumbent is strong but the president is popular and might be an asset.
Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has honed in on Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, and North Dakota, plus West Virginia, Arizona, and Nevada. So has the NRSC, although the group is spending in Montana, with $2.6 million in advertising reserved.
The Republicans’ truncated field, less than two months before Election Day, is cheering Senate Democrats who had feared the worst. Some are even daring to hope the party might capture the majority, in a political environment that is broadly characterized by an electorate looking to put a check on Trump.
“The big news out of the shifting of the Senate map is just how many states a year ago I would have bet my house were going to be competitive are less competitive,” Democratic pollster Matt Canter told reporters this week during a conference call.
From early in the cycle, the absence of Ohio and Pennsylvania from the list of contested Senate races has signaled that even states Trump won were not immune from a political atmosphere generally hostile to the GOP.
Some Republicans are emphasizing that high hopes some had for major gains were always unrealistic.
Sure, Republicans had the edge of competing in territory largely with voters that prefer conservative policies, and in some cases, that still think highly of the president, counter to his poor national numbers. But just as past midterm waves felled Democrats and Republicans in states that appeared to offer them the protection of political compatibility with voters, the same rules could apply this time around.
“What has happened in ball-parking 2018 is, you have an awful lot of Republican operatives who have never known what a lean cycle is like,” a GOP strategist said. “Anyone who is talking about adding a significant number of seats has never been through a first midterm of a president on their side.”
