There is a “silver lining” for President Trump two months out from Election Day with increased support among minority voters compared to four years ago, according to a pollster.
Dave Wasserman, House editor for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said on Thursday that Trump has been doing better, particularly among black and Hispanic voters, as he emphasized the importance of keeping tabs on demographic trends when looking at a cluster of polls.
“[Trump’s] doing better with nonwhites than he was doing in 2016,” Wasserman said on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. “He’s winning on average 9% of the black vote in these polls compared to 5% in his pre-election polls in 2016. And the Hispanic vote, Joe Biden is ahead 56% to 31%. The final polls in 2016, Hillary Clinton was up 61% to 23%. So, that’s a pretty decent number for Trump among Hispanics that I think is attributable to traditional Republican, Hispanic voters, including potential Cubans coming back to the Republican fold.”
The Trump campaign has stepped up its outreach toward minority communities throughout the 2020 campaign cycle, launching “Black Voices for Trump” last year and increasing efforts to reach conservative Latino voters across the country.
A report in the Atlantic showed the significance of Trump choosing Miami for his first campaign stop of the year while focusing on themes of security and faith. The rally’s location not only was set in the critical state of Florida but was home to the country’s largest Hispanic evangelical congregation.
Cuban Americans, in particular, are expected to be a crucial source of support for Trump, especially as some may feel alienated by Democratic talking points and policies that stray toward socialism. South Florida, home to the majority of Cuban exiles who fled to the United States after the Cuban Revolution, could be a potential base Trump can find support in given his consistent messaging against big government and socialism.
Joe Scarborough, a co-host on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, said he believes Cuban Americans could make a difference in a state with a heavy Hispanic and Latino population, attributing Republican victories in the 2018 midterms in Florida.
[Read more: Trump’s approval rating rises after GOP convention as presidential race tightens]
“If you look at what happened in 2018, one of the reasons why [Ron] DeSantis won and one of the reasons why Rick Scott went to the United States Senate was because Cuban Americans stayed with the Republican Party,” Scarborough said.
The Republican National Convention last month played up themes of diversity within the GOP, featuring several speakers who spoke of overcoming adversity despite barriers they have faced in an attempt to contrast what the party views as a “victimhood” mentality Democrats have in regards to minorities.
Among those who spoke was Cuban American businessman Maximo Alvarez, who denounced communism, Alice Marie Johnson, a black woman who was fully pardoned by Trump after being sentenced to life in prison for a first-time drug offense, and former NFL player Herschel Walker and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, who spoke against accusations of racism thrown at Trump.
Biden, who leads by a wide margin in most national polls, has been gaining support among white seniors, which could also tighten races in states with a large retirement population such as Florida and Arizona.
“At least in Florida, what seems to be offsetting that for now is Joe Biden’s strong performance among white seniors, which also helps him in Arizona,” Wasserman said.
Wasserman also talked about Biden possibly flipping Trump-leaning congressional districts. Biden’s best bet, Wasserman said, is to try and flip Omaha, Nebraska, the state’s 2nd Congressional District that Trump won in 2016 but now is being contested by the Democratic nominee.
The former vice president is also stronger in some support circles than Trump’s former challenger Hillary Clinton was at this stage of the campaign cycle in 2016.
“At this point, it’s still wise to keep an eye on larger trends, demographic trends in the electorate,” Wasserman said. “When I went and averaged eight polls that went in the field mid- to late-August versus the same polls in June or July, we can see Joe Biden’s numbers among college-educated whites have held up. He’s up 57%-38% right now among that group, which is a big improvement over Hillary Clinton 50%-38% in the final 2016 polls.”
