Between President Trump setting low expectations for Joe Biden’s debate performance and historical precedent of incumbent presidents not performing well in the first presidential debate, Democrats are optimistic that the first encounter between the major-party candidates will be Biden’s to lose.
The challenge, though, is that Trump could ignite the Democratic presidential nominee’s short temper with criticisms of his family or on matters of personal pride.
What the Biden campaign doesn’t want is a debate-stage version of when Biden told a Michigan autoworker that challenged him on guns that he is “full of s—,” or when he said that an Iowa voter who questioned his mental fitness and son Hunter Biden’s connections to a Ukrainian gas company was a “damn liar” and challenged him to an IQ test and pushup contest.
Trump has suggested that Biden’s good performance in the last Democratic presidential debate against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders this year was due to performance-enhancing shots and called on Biden to take a drug test before the debate — a request that the Biden campaign denied with a urine joke about Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Some Democrats think that Trump’s move to characterize Biden as “Sleepy Joe” and his campaign’s constant flaunting of his misstatements and gaffes will backfire on the president.
“Will Biden have some verbal stumbles? Of course, he will. But because the Trump campaign has talked about it so much, people are expecting it,” Democratic strategist Michael Starr Hopkins told the Washington Examiner.
“Biden stumbles over his words and may accidentally say something that comes off, you know, in a weird way. But Trump has a history of just saying offensive, lewd, and irresponsible things, and he’s the president,” he added.
Trump’s campaign, in an apparent recognition of the risk of lowering the expectations for Biden too much, sent talking points to Republican allies on Monday that warned in bold red type: “Yes, Biden’s alertness may be suspect but DO NOT underestimate his abilities in a debate.”
Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan, noted a historical trend that could play to Biden’s favor.
“What we’ve seen historically is that incumbent presidents perform poorly, especially in their first debate, because they haven’t had primary debates, they haven’t debated in around four years,” he told the Washington Examiner. “Because they’re president, people that work for them don’t challenge them, and then, all of a sudden, they get on a stage, and you’re really kind of challenged in a way that you’re not as president because of the power dynamic and relationship.”
Hopkins also said that Biden, who frequently got talked over during the crowded Democratic primary debates, would benefit from the format. “He does much better one-on-one.”
That gives Biden a fine foundation, but Trump is known for breaking norms of civility that Biden reveres.
The Biden campaign reportedly expects Trump not only to bring up overseas dealings and controversy surrounding his son Hunter Biden but that of the former vice president’s brothers, Jim and Frank.
Biden himself said on MSNBC Sunday that he expects personal attacks from the president.
“My guess is, it’s going to be just straight attack. They’re going to be mostly personal,” Biden said. “That’s the only thing he knows how to do. He doesn’t know how to debate the facts because he’s not that smart. He doesn’t know that many facts.”
But Trump, who held a press conference before one 2016 debate against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton with women who accused former President Bill Clinton of sexual misconduct, is poised to surprise.
“I could see a world where if Trump gets really desperate, he goes after Beau,” Hopkins said, referring to Biden’s son who was the attorney general of Delaware and died from brain cancer in 2015, “and make some kind of irresponsible comment just to try to get Biden flustered.”
