HOUSTON — Elizabeth Warren’s team has long foreshadowed that her road to the White House would be rocky, not confident enough to name a contest she could win, including her home state of Massachusetts.
Now, preliminary Super Tuesday results for the 2020 Democratic field reveal just how narrow her path would be should she decide to push on to the party’s national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, this summer.
Despite a massive organizing ground game, including 400 staff members in Super Tuesday states, the Massachusetts senator suffered blow after blow in the first four early nominating contests.
Then, on Super Tuesday, she won no contests and even finished third in her home state of Massachusetts.
Looking to allay concerns, Warren campaign manager Roger Lau circulated another memo this week before Democrats in 14 states and one U.S. territory decided how to allocate 1,357 delegates among the candidates still running for the right to challenge President Trump in November.
In the memo, he insisted his boss would remain “viable” after all of the votes were tallied, citing internal data showing she was expected to pick up delegates “in nearly every state in play on Super Tuesday” and be “in a strong position to earn a sizable delegate haul coming out of the night.”
“But as the dust settles after March 3, the reality of this race will be clear: no candidate will likely have a path to the majority of delegates needed to win an outright claim to the Democratic nomination,” he wrote.
In a sign of optimism, Warren committed funds from her record-breaking $24.6 million February fundraising haul in March voting states, spending $4.1 million on advertising ahead of contests on March 3, March 10, and March 17, as well as in Wisconsin, where Democrats go to the polls on April 7.
Advertising Analytics this week reported a cable television buy, running from Super Tuesday to March 9. Yet Persist PAC, the super political action committee that formed last month to boost her electoral chances, decided against deploying resources next week so it can replenish its coffers and provide Warren with time to consider her next steps, according to the New York Times on March 3. Persist PAC, founded after the senator railed against such groups for the majority of the primary cycle, spent almost $15 million on ads ahead of Nevada, South Carolina, and Super Tuesday.
With an eye to the horizon, however, Warren’s fortunes are unlikely to improve.
In Michigan, a March 10 voting state that was once part of the Democratic “blue wall” before 2016, she polled at 13% support in February when former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar were still in the race. In Florida and Georgia, where primaries will be held on March 17 and March 24, respectively, she attracted 5% and 4% of the vote, again when Buttigieg and Klobuchar were in contention.
Warren was once a front-runner in a crowded pack seeking the presidency. The disciplined messenger rose to the top of the polls based on her talent for retail politics and flurry of plans demonstrating she was ready for the opportunities and pressures of the Oval Office.
But despite her best efforts on the campaign trail and debate stage, she has been hurt by her inability to grow her base from white, college-educated Democrats, particularly among minority members of the party. She’s also been hindered by her reluctance until recently to differentiate herself from ideological ally Bernie Sanders.
Whatever the reason, Warren, known for her sunny, upbeat disposition on the campaign trail, was notably low-energy during a CNN interview Monday night. Though she was endorsed by EMILY’S List, the mounting public backing of Joe Biden resulted in Sanders fans urging her to do the same but behind the Vermont senator for much of the day.
Warren addressed the conundrum onstage before 3,000 people in East Los Angeles later Monday, her final rally before ballots began being cast.
“We find ourselves barreling toward another primary along the same lanes as 2016: one for an insider, one for an outsider. Democratic voters should have more choice than that,” she said.
Warren again downplayed the two-term vice president’s endorsements, including those from Buttigieg and Klobuchar, as she herself voted in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Tuesday morning before flying to Michigan for her Super Tuesday event.
“This is about getting out and talking to people about what’s possible, the change that’s possible in this country. This isn’t about strategy. This is about a moment in history,” she told NBC.
But Michael Bloomberg offered the bluntest, if not biased, take on her prospects when asked whether he would consider a third-place finish on Super Tuesday “good.”
“If there’s only three candidates, you can’t do worse than that,” the billionaire former New York City mayor said.
When the reporter reminded him of Warren, he replied, “I didn’t realize she’s still in. Is she?”
