This round of primaries for the Democratic presidential nomination is the time voters will decide between two remaining 2020 top-tier candidates, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
Six states vote on Tuesday (Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington), which account for 352 nominating delegates to the Democratic National Convention. A total of 1,991 delegates is needed to win the Democratic nomination at the party’s convention this summer.
Here are seven things to watch for with Tuesday’s primaries.
Michigan make-or-break for Sanders
Michigan, which has the largest delegate prize at 155, is essential for the Vermont senator’s White House hopes.
Biden has a hold on Southern states, and Sanders’s best chance of catching up with the former vice president in delegates is rooted in the Upper Midwest state, which he won in 2016 in a surprise upset. He hopes that a win there would translate to more wins in Illinois and Ohio, which hold primaries next Tuesday.
If Biden wins Michigan, that may lock up the Democratic nomination for him — not in a technical sense, but a substantive one.
Upset in Michigan?
Polls on Monday showed Biden with double-digit leads over Sanders in Michigan, eerily similar to the 25-point lead that Hillary Clinton had over Sanders the day before the 2016 Democratic primary, when the Vermont senator won the state by 1.4 percentage points.
Washington favored for Sanders, but full results won’t be known
Washington state votes by mail-in ballot: The ballots must be postmarked by Tuesday, and about half of the ballots are expected by Wednesday.
Sanders is favored to win the state, which has 89 nominating delegates. Biden, however, told a group of donors that after reviewing polling data, he is optimistic about his prospects in the state.
“We feel really good about Washington state, where Bernie was predicted to walk away with it,” Biden said on Friday, according to a pool report.
Eye on the margins
Since delegates are awarded proportionally based on statewide votes and votes within congressional districts, losing by a small margin is just as important for Sanders as winning in order to prevent Biden from drastically expanding a delegate lead.
While 102 delegates from Super Tuesday contests have yet to be allocated, Biden leads Sanders in delegates, 664 to 573.
Pressure on Sanders to match 2016 performance
In addition to a close win in Michigan, Sanders won by double digits in Washington, Idaho, and North Dakota in 2016, and Clinton beat him by less than half a percentage point in Missouri. Biden wins in those states or a blowout in Missouri will add to the evidence that Sanders’s base of support is much smaller than it was four years ago.
Washington and Idaho converted from caucuses to primaries this year, so the dynamics there could be different with more participation in primaries.
Coronavirus fears affecting the elections
Both Biden and Sanders have said they are keeping close eyes on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s recommendations for mitigating the risk of contracting the coronavirus at their rallies and in how they interact with voters.
There is a possibility that fears about the virus could affect turnout. Officials in Washington state told voters to use a damp cloth rather than saliva to seal mail-in ballots.
Sanders blaming the establishment
The Vermont senator faced criticism over the weekend when he blamed former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s exits from the race and their subsequent Super Tuesday-eve Biden endorsements on establishment pressure. Aides for his former rivals rebuked his statements.
If Sanders faces disappointment on Tuesday, he is likely to point fingers at establishment forces again.
