Sen. Bernie Sanders is facing several losses in Tuesday’s Democratic primaries, including in the state of Missouri, where voters appear poised to support front-runner Joe Biden overwhelmingly.
Two March polls show Biden with a significant advantage over Sanders among voters in the Show-Me State, while a third poll shows Biden with a narrow lead.
The polling was conducted after Biden’s big win in the South Carolina primary and after Biden won 10 out of 14 states in the March 3 Super Tuesday contest.
“The limited evidence we have on current opinion in Missouri suggests that the momentum Biden has enjoyed since South Carolina will likely carry him to victory here as well,” University of Missouri political science professor Peverill Squire told the Washington Examiner.
Missouri is among six states holding contests on Tuesday, with 365 pledged delegates up for grabs.
Biden is leading Sanders by double digits in Michigan, which awards 125 pledged delegates, and has a slim lead over Sanders in Washington state, where 89 delegates are up for grabs. A total of 1,991 delegates are needed to win the Democratic nomination at the party’s convention this summer.
In 2016, when Sanders ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination against Hillary Clinton, she beat Sanders in Missouri, but by just a small fraction of a percent.
He’ll probably lose again on Tuesday, polls suggest, this time by a much greater margin.
A Data for Progress poll conducted March 4-7 shows Biden enjoys a 10-point lead among Missouri Democratic voters. The same poll showed Biden leading Sanders, 62% to 32%, ahead of Tuesday’s primary.
“Both Biden and Sanders have made appearances in the state in the last few days, and both campaigns are running commercials,” Peverill said. “But my sense of the race is that Biden enjoys stronger support than Sanders in the state’s major urban centers and that he may also benefit from additional support from suburban voters, who may be disenchanted with the Trump administration.”
A second survey published by Missouri Scout and conducted March 4-5, before Sen. Elizabeth Warren dropped out, gave Biden a 53%-31% lead over Sanders.
A third poll conducted during the same time period by Emerson College, which used a smaller and less representative sample than the Missouri Scout poll, showed Biden and Sanders statistically tied, 48% to 44%.
The Emerson poll showed a dramatic divide among age groups. Voters under the age of 50 mostly backed Sanders (66%), while voters over 50 backed Biden (70%). Biden led among nonwhite voters, 50% to 36%.
Sanders was considered the front-runner after winning in the New Hampshire primary, the Nevada caucuses, and winning the popular vote in the Iowa caucuses. But Biden’s decisive win in South Carolina, followed by victories in most of the Super Tuesday states and endorsements from several former Democratic competitors, has solidified Biden as the new front-runner.
Biden now leads the delegate count, with 664 pledged delegates. Sanders has won 573 pledged delegates.
Biden is poised to win most of Missouri’s 68 pledged delegates.
“If Biden wins it big, as expected, especially with an older voting populace and minority voters, the path forward for Sanders to the nomination becomes narrower and nearly nonexistent,” Jessica Taylor, an editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Washington Examiner.
