President Trump announced Tuesday that he will be holding one of his “Make America Great Again” rallies in Southaven, Miss., next week — and that Republicans are keeping an eye on the state’s Senate race.
Where Trump travels tells you a lot about which red-state campaigns the White House and Republican leaders believe need a little shoring up. “President Trump will update Mississippi patriots on the great success of his America First agenda that’s improving the lives of families across the Magnolia State,” said Michael Glassner, chief operating officer of Trump’s re-election campaign, in a statement. “The President will also encourage Mississippians to get out and vote for Cindy Hyde-Smith in November.”
Trump is holding a rally in Wheeling on Saturday to boost Patrick Morrisey, the Republican challenger to Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. Manchin has a healthy lead in the polls despite the fact that Trump won the state by 42 points in 2016.
Then, on Monday, Trump will travel to Johnson City, Tenn. in support of Rep. Marsha Blackburn, the Republican vying to replace retiring Sen. Bob Corker. Blackburn is tied with her Democratic opponent in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
Hyde-Smith’s immediate threat comes not from top Democratic candidate Ben Espy but Chris McDaniel, the conservative running ahead of her in a nonpartisan special election. Trump will travel to Mississippi Tuesday to protect her Right flank.
When the White House announced Trump’s campaign schedule for the midterm elections back in August, it mostly included states with competitive Senate races for seats Republicans are trying to hold or gain: North Dakota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, and Tennessee. But there were a few mild surprises, like South Dakota, where Trump wants to help Rep. Kristi Noem’s gubernatorial bid, and Kentucky, presumably to buoy incumbent Rep. Andy Barr.
The news that Trump will go to Texas to campaign for Sen. Ted Cruz in October sent a strong signal Republicans believe the polls showing Democrat Beto O’Rourke is giving Cruz a tough race.
What the schedule doesn’t show is much confidence in a “red wave” — Trump is traveling not to suburban swing districts or Democratic territory, but mostly to states and congressional districts where he remains popular. Nevada, where Trump lost narrowly to Hillary Clinton but Sen. Dean Heller is seeking another term this year, is one exception.
“The president will be very busy just going to the places where he will be welcome and can be helpful,” said Republican strategist Bradley Blakeman.
“I will go six or seven days a week when we’re 60 days out, and I will be campaigning for all of these great people that do have a difficult race,” Trump told Fox News in July.
If Trump winds up in Florida, that could be a vote of confidence in Gov. Rick Scott’s Senate campaign. But if the president mostly plays defense in states Republicans already hold, it will be a sign that their path to building on or holding the 51-49 Senate majority is narrowing.
Ten Democratic senators are running for re-election this year in states Trump carried. In several of these states, however, the Republican candidates have failed to gain traction. Still, the GOP has an opportunity to pick up seats in what is otherwise a challenging midterm election environment. Republican operatives have worried about whether they will be able to spread enough money around to all the Senate races they would like to contest this year.
One thing they seem to be able to count on more than the money: When Republican candidates are in need, Trump is available to come to a rally near you.
