Fresh doubts about the Republican Party’s chances of winning Senate control in midterm elections are being fueled by a slate of first-time candidates struggling to find their footing against seasoned Democratic competition.
Initial projections suggested a red tidal wave might sweep Republicans to power in November, ousting Democrats from Georgia to Washington state and New Hampshire to Arizona. With Labor Day and the homestretch of the fall campaign approaching, the GOP is suddenly fighting to defend seats in red states like Ohio and swing states like Pennsylvania. The culprit? Candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump who were ill-prepared for the general election.
Senate Democrats are defending their hold on a 50-50 Senate made possible by Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. Republicans don’t need a wave to reclaim the Senate majority; they simply need to flip one Democratic-held seat while holding several elsewhere. That task has looked taller in recent months.
Republican Senate contenders propelled to the nomination by Trump — and in certain cases, the support of a single wealthy donor — have labored to adapt to a general election in which they are required to shoulder more of the campaign load than in the primary, and against strong Democratic candidates.
“The better candidates are the ones that have to grind it out, check by check and endorsement by endorsement,” a veteran Republican strategist said. “Having a single outside benefactor does not prepare you for the rigors of a general election.”
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In particular, Republican insiders are concerned about Blake Masters in Arizona, Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, J.D. Vance in Ohio, and Herschel Walker in Georgia. All four won primaries largely on the strength of Trump’s endorsement, although the nominating contests in Arizona, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were competitive, and the results were close. And, in the case of Masters and Vance, their victories were boosted by super PACs funded by contributions of more than $10 million, each, from venture capitalist and GOP megadonor Peter Thiel.
However, other Republicans argue concerns about these four nominees are misplaced.
They see the summer doldrums experienced by this quartet as a natural result of tough primaries. Difficulties accumulating resources, meanwhile, are being attributed to their being first-time candidates who are inexperienced fundraisers. As the party unifies and voters compare messages coming from the Republican and Democratic campaigns, this quartet of GOP nominees will rise. In some instances, these Republicans say, that is already happening.
“We have great candidates running across the country,” said Chris Hartline, spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the Senate GOP campaign arm. “The NRSC has been spending heavily to help our candidates get on the air, get their message out, and define the Democrats for their radical agenda. We’re well positioned to win back the Senate majority in November.”
Here are the pros and cons of the Republican nominees in each of these four general election contests, as explained by Republican operatives in Washington, and in the states where the races are unfolding:
Arizona — Masters vs. Sen. Mark Kelly (D): Masters is a 36-year-old first-time candidate running as a Trump acolyte in a swing state that narrowly elected President Joe Biden in 2020. He is energetic and dynamic, positioned as an outsider who can harness the support of grassroots Republicans galvanized by the former president. Masters has an attractive young family — his wife recently cut an effective television ad vouching for her husband — and can boast of success in the private sector (working for Thiel).
But Masters has a history of making controversial statements, the sort that aren’t necessarily controversial except in the context of a political campaign. He lacks message discipline, sounding off on various topics beyond skyrocketing inflation and other issues voters are most concerned about. And Masters is not surrounded by the most experienced of advisers, useful for candidates like him who have never run for office. Masters’s opposition to abortion rights, which he is trying to recast as support for commonsense restrictions, is causing problems with women.
“His biggest problem is his reluctance to listen,” a Republican operative in Arizona said. “He is the smartest guy in the room and surrounds himself with people who are yes-men.”
Despite there being 10-plus weeks to go before Election Day, some Republicans have concluded Masters is a lost cause. On Friday, Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), canceled $8 million in television advertising previously allocated to the state, as reported by Politico.
Georgia — Walker vs. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D): Walker, 60, is a charismatic Georgia icon.
He led the University of Georgia to a national championship in football in 1980 and went on to a prolific career as a running back in the NFL. Practically everywhere he goes in Georgia, people ask for an autograph or a selfie. In a political era defined by distrust of government and institutions, outsider, first-time candidates often have distinct advantages, and Walker is that. His universal name recognition doesn’t hurt, either.
But since winning the primary in May, Walker’s acute unfamiliarity with the issues and seeming lack of preparation have been striking. Voters are often receptive to fresh ideas and plainspokenness; they can prefer it, in fact, to overly polished presentations and positions that lean toward doing things the way they are always done (see: Trump). But Walker appears to have neither — ideas, fresh or otherwise, nor plainspokenness, versus simply appearing confused about the issues.
To wit, this was Walker on Sunday, ostensibly criticizing Democratic climate policy. “They continue to try to fool you that they are helping you out. But they’re not,” he said. “Because a lot of money, it’s going to trees. Don’t we have enough trees around here?”
Ohio — Vance vs. Rep. Tim Ryan (D): Vance, who worked in venture capital after serving in the Marines and earning a law degree, rose to national prominence through his bestselling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, also made into a motion picture by Netflix. Vance is an articulate political outsider who understands the zeitgeist of a Republican Party dominated by cultural issues and is tapping into populist enthusiasm for Trump that carried the former president to two roughly 8-percentage-point victories in Ohio in 2016 and 2020.
Vance leads Ryan in recent polling and is considered the favorite to win in November. Even the Republican nominee’s GOP critics predict he’ll win, warts and all, if for no other reason than Biden’s low approval ratings and that Ohio is currently behaving like a red state. About those warts.
Republicans in Ohio and Washington have complained all summer that Vance’s campaign operation was slow to ramp up to general election speed, and there is extreme dissatisfaction with his fundraising. Indeed, there was so much angst about Vance’s ability to accumulate enough resources that McConnell’s super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, announced plans to spend $28 million in Ohio as an Election Day insurance policy.
Some Republicans are sniping that if Vance were taking care of business, that money could have been spent on GOP candidates in reach states, such as Colorado and Washington.
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Pennsylvania — Oz vs. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D): What’s not to like with Oz?
He’s the famous, universally known host of a nationally syndicated television program, a lauded heart surgeon, and wealthy enough to self-fund his campaign at least partially. Oz is charismatic, likable, and hard-working. Since winning the primary, he has been traveling Pennsylvania extensively to meet with voters and earn their support. And, as luck might have it, Oz has had the campaign trail practically all to himself as Fetterman recovers from a stroke suffered just before the May primary.
Some recent polls show a tighter race, giving Republicans confidence that Oz is headed in the right direction.
So, what’s Oz’s problem? Some Republicans say it’s subpar campaign messaging. Some say he is mishandling Fetterman’s illness, allowing the lieutenant governor to avoid political blowback. Some are griping that he is not raising enough money — especially for a celebrity candidate running in a top race in a targeted swing state. And, there are still some Republicans who carp that Oz is not believable as a conservative, Trump’s endorsement notwithstanding.
But ultimately, Oz’s many possible problems boil down to one obvious big problem: He’s from New Jersey. Indeed, being such a recent transplant, and having transplanted simply to use Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat to launch a new career, Oz might as well still live in New Jersey as far as many voters are concerned.
“The carpetbagger thing has hurt him because it hasn’t allowed him to get on track with the issues that really matter,” a Republican insider in Pennsylvania said. “They defined him early as a carpetbagger, and he has to parry against that with everything he does.”
