Banning fracking and federal oil and gas leasing could trigger a U.S. recession, leading to a $1.2 trillion reduction in gross domestic product and 7.5 million lost jobs by 2022, according to a report Thursday by the industry’s largest lobbying group.

Swing states Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Texas — all hotbeds for natural gas production — along with Florida, would be among the states with the highest job losses, underscoring the political risk of proposals by Democratic presidential candidates to ban fracking and fossil fuel leases on public lands.